AZ Monsoon Outlook: Hot Temperatures, Uncertain Rainfall Expected

ARIZONA — The National Weather Service's annual monsoon outlook is predicting more hot weather and uncertain rainfall amounts for Arizona in the summer ahead.

The outlook says that the Grand Canyon State has a 60 percent chance of seeing above average temperatures during this year's monsoon, which runs from June 15-Sept. 30.

There's a 33 percent chance of near-normal temperatures in Arizona, with a seven percent chance of below average temperatures, the service said.

As far as rainfall goes, it appears that Arizona has a near equal chance of getting above-average, normal or below-average amounts of moisture during the 2021 monsoon.

In Phoenix, the outlook shows roughly an even shot at above or below average rainfall this summer (33 percent for below and above normal precipitation and 34 percent for near normal).

For Tucson, the outlook is relatively similar, with a 34 percent chance of below-average precipitation and a 33 percent shot at near normal and above-average rainfall, the service said.

Having an average to above-average monsoon is important for the region, as the summer months provide 30-60 percent of Arizona's annual rainfall.

It's also especially important this summer, after the 2020 monsoon proved to be the driest on record for the American Southwest, the service said.

Last summer, Phoenix had its 13th-driest monsoon, registering 1 inch of rain, while Tucson's was second-driest, with 1.62 inches.

In the northern part of the Grand Canyon State, the city of Flagstaff saw its driest monsoon on record in 2020, with 1.78 inches of rainfall during the summer, the service said.

For more information on the National Weather Service's 2021 Monsoon outlook, visit the service's Climate Projection Center website.