Perhaps Encouraging News?

I seem to be bouncing back and forth between Cassandra and Pollyanna (nothing bipolar about me) and this could bite me in the ass in a week or so, but I find this mildly encouraging.

Many of you have heard of or seen reports about Kinsa, a manufacturer of networkable “smart” thermometers. One bit of research they do is they aggregate all the readings across the country, a couple of million data points. (I presume they do it anonymously, but I honestly don’t know.) They can then combine these with historical data to establish the “typical” level of fevers for different regions caused by the annual flu. Then, if a region has an *atypical* level of fevers, the additional readings may correlate with imminent COVID-19 outbreaks. They have a couple of quasi-interactive maps here: https://is.gd/nXygWN I’ve attached the map and chart, to which I now call your attention, to this post. Here are my takes.

First, look at the national map. I note three things.
(1) The NYC area, which has one of every three cases nationally, has concentrated red and orange; the red blotch is Orange County. NY State reports about 15,000 cases (half of all nationally, btw).
(2) Florida, on the other hand, has all that red, especially around Orlando and the “Space Coast”, home to a disproportionate number of retirees.But Florida only reports about 800 cases. This implies that either FL is seriously under-reported (because they don’t want to know?), or they are looking at a serious outbreak in the next week or so. Or both. (That gray splotch in the lower middle is Lake Okeechobee; the swamp.) And they‘be been slow to enact the kinds of restrictions we’ve suffered lately.
(3) California, however, is gray, indicating very few atypical illnesses. Alameda County has a “mild” level of observed illnesses. This could mean one of two things. Either we just haven’t gotten hit yet (a real likelihood, Cassandra reminds us), or maybe, just maybe, we’ve slammed the brakes on just in time. We’ve spilled our shakes, dropped our burgers, lost our joints, and scared the crap out of the dog, but we’re still on the cliff, not over it. As uncomfortable, as big a pain in the patoot as the whole “stay-at-home” thing is, it may be doing what we need it to do.
Now look at the other chart. The line representing atypical illness levels, after a jump, has almost disappeared, and is well inside the “typical” range. Indeed, unless this is a glitch in the graphic, Alameda and CoCo Counties are below the typical range.

Now, to quote podcaster Bob Cesca, “Don’t get happy”. This may be encouraging news, but it’s not based on a whole lot. And the situation changes fast; see my note about Florida, either or both it and New York could start a new wave. And I also note the report of two new cases in Alameda County. This may or may not qualify as a counterexample, reports will increase as testing gets more available. What it ought to encourage us to do is to keep doing what we’ve been doing the last week or so, as uncomfortable as it’s been, another three or so months, maybe a bit more; it’ll be tough, but we can avoid the cliff.

Or maybe we’re off the cliff and I’m grasping for straws (damn you, Cassandra!)

It’s a tiny light, perhaps, at the end of this tunnel, but I don’t hear a train… ;-)