CA 2023 Wildfire Forecast: Slow Start, But Late Season Dangers Ahead

CALIFORNIA — While California's prolific winter and historic snowpack should help stave off wildfires early on, significant risks may be in play by the late summer and early fall, according to a new report.

AccuWeather's stable of meteorologists recently published their 2023 wildfire forecast, predicting an average to slightly above-average fire season for the U.S. Forecasters estimate that 60,000 to 75,000 wildfires will burn between 6.5 million and 8.25 million acres across the nation, coming in close to the 20-year average.

Despite a delayed start in California, with very low fire threats through June, AccuWeather forecasts 400,000 to 1 million acres will burn across the Golden State before the season ends. The higher end of that prediction matches the state's annual average from 2001 to 2020. But even if the season lands on the lower end, meteorologists warn there is more to the story than mere acres — something Californians know all too well.

"There is no better example of this sentiment than the 2018 wildfire season when the Camp Fire raged in California," writes Brian Lada, an AccuWeather meteorologist. "The blaze scorched 153,336 acres and burned the city of Paradise, California, to the ground, killing 85 people to become the deadliest wildfire in the U.S. in 100 years."

Noting a "barrage of comb cyclones and atmospheric rivers" that built one of the biggest snowpacks in history, AccuWeather forecasters believe the fire season will get a late start in California this year. Unfortunately, those same factors have spurred rapid vegetation growth across the state, which together with downed trees will add fuel for potential fires as things dry out heading into late summer.

• Read AccuWeather's full 2023 U.S. wildfire forecast here.

"Southern California is already seeing the growth expanding the best they've seen in a while, and that is just setting up the stage for these fuels to be at a high rate as we get later into the season," said Paul Pastelok, a senior meteorologist and AccuWeather's lead long-range forecaster. "Also, we're transitioning out of La Nina into an El Nino — that actually favors drier and warmer conditions compared to normal for Northern California and the Northwest. Those areas may be at a higher risk going forward this summer."

AccuWeather predicts wildfires will peak between August and September in Northern California, and September to November in Central and Southern California. Those months present an especially precarious situation, as the North American monsoon spurs lightning and the Santa Ana winds blow.

Elsewhere in the country, AccuWeather said a drier than usual winter will lend to a high wildfire risk across the interior Northwest and northern Rockies as early as June, and peaking between late July and early September. There is also a possibility for more heat waves to develop and quickly evaporate what moisture is available.

The air quality will be another area of broad concern this summer. As recent years have shown, when large wildfires send massive smoke plumes up into the atmosphere, their impacts can be felt hundreds, if not thousands, of miles away.