CA Exodus Loses Some Steam: State's Population Eyed

CALIFORNIA — After two consecutive years of a declining population in California, some forecasters predict the Golden State's losses may start to level off.

Between April 2020 and July 2022, California's population dropped by about 500,000 people to 39,029,342, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Most of the plunge occurred during the worst part of the pandemic, between April 2020 and July 2021.

California is still the most populous state, and slow gains could return. The California Department of Finance projects the state's population will reach over 41 million by 2026, although new projections expected this year will likely be revised downward.

Dowell Myers, a professor of policy, planning and demography at USC, recently told the Los Angeles Times, "annual [population] change will be much closer to zero" in 2023 compared to the loss experienced over the last two years, and "should turn positive" by 2024.

The Inland Empire and Sacramento metropolitan area are growing, but Los Angeles and San Francisco are not seeing the same gains. Headlines of a Golden State exodus have dominated news cycles, but California was not alone in its recent population decline: Eighteen U.S. states experienced a drop in 2022 with California coming in tenth-highest at -o.3%. New York, Illinois, Louisiana, West Virginia, Hawaii, Oregon, Mississippi, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island all saw greater percentage losses, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.

California's declining population was largely due to net "domestic outmigration" — people moving out of state, according to the data. The biggest losses were in California (-343,230), New York (-299,557) and Illinois (-141,656), the data show.

"People [were] seeking safe refuge during the pandemic," away from the state's most congested cities, Myers told the Los Angeles Times.

Cheaper housing and other quality-of-life issues were also factors behind the Golden State exodus, according to the Times article.

On the flip side, "natural change," which is defined by the Census Bureau as births compared to deaths, painted a different picture in California. Of the 26 states and the District of Columbia where births outnumbered deaths, Texas (118,159), California (106,155) and New York (35,611) had the highest natural increase, according to the 2022 census data.

Even so, California's birth rate (births per 1,000 residents) is at its lowest level in more than 100 years, and there is no clear signal of impending change.

All 50 states and the District of Columbia saw increases in international migration during 2022, with California (125,715), Florida (125,629) and Texas (118,614) having the largest gains.

According to the experts, if the exodus continues slowing as the pandemic's effects ease — and babies keep being born and migrants from other countries move in — California's population could begin to shift upward again, though the kind of population growth witnessed during the last century is not expected anytime soon.