Regional Economic Forecast: Cautious Slow Growth

Long Beach, and Southern California, jobs grew in 2011 for the first time since the 2007 economic downturn that rocked the country, and while the pace lags behind historical trajectories, there is cause for measured optimism, experts said this week.

At Cal State Long Beach's 18th Annual Regional Economic Forecast, professors told a paying audience that while not remarkable, five Southern California counties have seen a recovery. Orange County was hit the earliest by the housing bubble's burst, and the experts said it's recovery has come soonest.

Dr. Lisa Grobar, economics professor and director of the economic forecast, and Dr. Joseph Magaddino, CSULB professor emeritus, interpreted data on trade, housing, employment and income to compile the forecast and estimate growth rates for Long Beach and five counties: Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura, the Grunion Gazette reported from the Thursday event.

"The 0.6% growth last year was modest, but the economists predict that there will be more job growth in the coming years," the story by Ashleigh Oldland states.

“For 2012,"Grobar states, "we predict a 1.5% job growth gain… By 2014, we will be adding jobs at just below the 3% line.”

Construction and retail are among the hardest hit industries, said Grobar, but both are bouncing back. Four service sectors are expectsed to see the most new jobs: education and health services; professional and business services; retail trade; and leisure and hospitality services.

"We're seeing some increase in employment, but nothing substantial," Michael Carney, an economist at Cal Poly Pomona, told the Whittier Daily News. "It will take a long time for job gains to make a real dent in (un)employment."

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