Coronavirus Concerns Spread Across Orange County, Southland

ORANGE COUNTY, CA - Orange County remained in the red tier this week for the state's COVID-19 metrics, but the trend of rising coronavirus cases will put the county at risk of lapsing back into the most restrictive purple tier next week.

The county reported 267 new cases of COVID-19 on Tuesday and three new fatalities, bringing its cumulative case total to 62,830 and the death toll to 1,512.

"The good news is we're red and we survive another week, but the bad news is we're trending in the wrong direction," Orange County CEO Frank Kim said, calling the rise in transmission of COVID-19 a regional, state and national problem.

"I just looked at the state data site and it's not good," Kim said.
Orange County is in a better place than other counties, he said.

"Compared to the region it's a good number," Kim said of the county's case rate per 100,000 population. Kim said the county has to stay under 229 new daily cases to remain in the red tier.

Officials say the daily average of new cases would have to come down to about 130 for Orange County to make it to the orange tier, allowing for more businesses to reopen and for some already open to increase their capacity.

The number of hospitalizations related to the virus jumped from 205 Monday to 224 Tuesday, with the number of intensive care unit patients rising from 76 to 79, according to the Orange County Health Care Agency.
The change in the three-day average of hospitalized patients went from 12.7% to 13.7%. The county has 32% of its intensive care unit beds and 64% of its ventilators available.

According to OCHCA data, 1,197,862 COVID-19 tests have been conducted since the start of the pandemic, including 7,130 reported Tuesday. There have been 55,330 documented recoveries.

The county's positivity rate, which is reported each Tuesday, actually declined from 3.6% to 3.3%, and the daily case rate per 100,000 population decreased from 6 to 5.6.

The county's Health Equity Quartile Positivity Rate, which measures a county's response to virus hot spots, decreased from 5.7% to 5.5%. The county has to reach at least 5.2% in that metric to move into the orange tier.

But Kim cautioned that the weekly metrics reflect last week's statistics. Next week, the county's case rate per 100,000 might jump to about 8, which exceeds the 4 to 7 rate in the red tier.

"Every county in Southern California is reporting the same exact root cause: people mixing outside their stable cohorts with informal get- togethers," he said.

Several other counties are struggling with a rise in cases in schools. But often the outbreaks are seen in places of work, such as a local car dealer than had a recent outbreak among its mechanics, Kim said.

Officials are concerned that shutting down more commerce with a reversion to the purple tier would not address the source of the spread, but would have a negative effect on the economy. "But the state so far has not accepted those arguments," Kim said.

The CEO said he was "really excited" about Pfizer's announcement on Monday that it has developed a vaccine that is 90% effective and will be available soon.

"If it's true that it's 90% effective that's wonderful," Kim said.
Pfizer's vaccine is similar to others under development.

"That gives us hope that in two or three months when the vaccines are more widely available that we'll be able to bend the curve on the number of deaths, because that's the biggest concern we have," Kim said.

County officials have traced a handful of infections to students returning to campus at UC Irvine, but not anywhere near the hundreds of students infected at other universities.

One of the peskiest issues county officials have been dealing with is socializing among teens and young adults.
"It's a major issue," said Dr. Matthew Zahn, medical director of the county's communicable disease control division. "I think our biggest goals, our most consistent goals, is reaching out to these populations."

Zahn said efforts are being made to reach out to students on campuses to reinforce the importance of social and physical distancing and mask usage. He said that often, however, on a campus or at a workplace, there is more mindfulness of social distancing, but not so much after class or work.

City News Service contributed to this report.