Orange County Hopeful To Reach Red Tier, Focused On Reopening

ORANGE COUNTY, CA — Orange County is a hair's breadth away from further easing coronavirus restrictions. Still, it must maintain its current rates through Sunday to move to the less restrictive red tier of Gov. Gavin Newsom's Blueprint for a Safer Economy.

If current trends continue, Orange County could graduate to the less-restrictive red tier of the state's coronavirus reopening system by St. Patrick's Day, the county's chief health officer and director of the Orange County Health Care Agency told reporters Tuesday.

"I'm pretty optimistic that two weeks from now we'll be able to enter the red tier," said Dr. Clayton Chau, who is the county's chief health officer and director of the OCHCA.

If the county can maintain the case rates and positivity rates it has now it could enter the red tier by March 17, Chau said. The county must then hold those rates for another two weeks to qualify for a less-restrictive tier that would allow for the reopening of more businesses.

Chau said the vaccines are making the difference in reductions across the country in infections, and he was further cheered by news from the Biden administration that there will be enough vaccines for all Americans by the end of May.

"That's great news," he said. "Now, we can truly talk about the green tier" when the state is free of any restrictions.

Chau was also optimistic that by the end of March vaccines will be available to everyone who is currently eligible.

"The reason all this tiering is happening now is because we have a very limited amount of vaccine and we want to target those most vulnerable," Chau said, referring to the various phases of vaccine availability that started with health care workers and first responders and now includes seniors 65 and older, food industry workers and educators.

Chau implored residents to get vaccinated when they can no matter which particular vaccine is offered.

"All three vaccines offer 100% effectiveness" in preventing severe illness that leads to hospitalization, Chau said of Moderna, Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson.

Once less restrictive criteria are met, the county must hold its current rates for an additional two weeks to qualify for a less-restrictive tier Orange that will allow for the reopening of more businesses, and ultimately the reopening of area theme parks and supportive businesses in Anaheim.

For almost a year, Disneyland and Knott's Berry Farm have been all but shuttered, along with countless other restaurants, movie theaters, entertainments, and most everything that makes people feel "normal." As the county struggled to get the coronavirus metrics under control amid the global pandemic and keep the rates falling in the right direction, all must continue testing and getting vaccines into people's arms, Orange County Supervisor Vice-Chairman Doug Chaffee of District 4 tells Patch.

On Tuesday, Chaffee was cautiously optimistic about the health statistics released from the state. The county reported an additional 6,261 people tested for coronavirus, and of those, 186 new coronavirus cases were identified on Tuesday. Chaffee is focused on making sure his constituents can be easily tested for coronavirus and also receive their vaccines.

"We have to keep going with testing," he says. "That, and getting vaccines into the arms of those who qualify for them."

The county's cumulative total of positive cases since the pandemic began has reached 246,830. Orange County also logged 31 more deaths due to coronavirus, increasing the number of those who have lost their lives due to the virus to 3,952.

Each Tuesday, the state releases the key metrics that determine which tier the county will be seated in. Orange County has been in the purple, or most restrictive tier, since Fall.

READ: Orange County Athletes Return To Sports Friday With Modifications

It would seem all of the county's percentages are falling the correct way toward reopening, all except one: that of the adjusted daily case rate.

The county's test positivity rate — which is reported weekly on Tuesdays — dropped to 3.9% from 5.4% last week, and the adjusted case rate per 100,000 on a seven-day average with a seven-day lag improved from 11.9 to 7.6.

The Health Equity Quartile Positivity Rate, which reflects the rates in hot spots in disadvantaged neighborhoods, improved from 7% to 5%.

That puts the positivity rates in orange, though the case rate remains stuck in the Purple Tier or "widespread" range.

Two Oranges Equal Red

County CEO Frank Kim discussed the county's most recent overall testing positivity rate, which would put the county in the Orange Tier.

The county's positivity rate is at 3.8%, and the health-equity positivity rate was at 4.9%. Both would put both in the Orange tier, said Orange County CEO Frank Kim.

The case rate per 100,000 residents, however, was at 7.6, which qualifies it for the red tier.

The good news for Orange County is that if the state has had an exception, that allows a county to move up to the next tier if two metrics are in an advanced tier and one is lagging.

For instance, if the case rate per 100,000 remained in the Purple Tier, but the positivity rates were Orange, the county could theoretically move up to the Red tier if it can maintain those levels for two consecutive weeks, Kim said.

"You've got to make it and then hold it for two weeks and one day, and then you can reopen," Kim said. "There's no guarantee of that, though. The case rate plateaued."

"It was flat the last two days... I thought we'd be closer to the red tier, but we're not," he said. "We didn't make any progress over the last day, but I still think we'll make it by next Sunday, but I can't assure anyone of that."

According to Dr. Clayton Chau of the OC Health Care Agency, If numbers continue to drop, Orange County could move into the Red tier by March 17 or two weeks.

To get to the red tier, the county has to have a case rate per 100,000 population of 4 to 7, a positivity rate of 5% to 8%, and a Health Equity Quartile rate of 5.3% to 8%.

What Happens In The Red Tier

The red tier allows for many more businesses and organizations to reopen.

For instance, retail stores could allow for half capacity instead of 25%, museums, zoos, and aquariums could reopen for indoor activities at 25% capacity, as could movie theaters, gyms, and restaurants.

Public health professionals are "worried there could be a second surge" if residents drop their guard as news flows in about vaccines, including the newly authorized Johnson & Johnson vaccine, Kim said.

"They are concerned people will stop listening to the health professionals, and we'll potentially have another surge, and every time we have a surge, it takes at least two months to turn it around properly," Kim said. "It's painful."

The State Of Vaccination In Orange County

The Orange County Health Care Agency has been busy retrofitting the Disneyland Super Point of Dispensing site for drive-thru access for the disabled. To date, the hours-long, painstaking waits at the Disneyland POD have been the topic of many conversations. With the change, according to Chaffee, that site will be equal to the more easily accessed Soka University and Santa Ana College sites.

County officials say the Disneyland site will be closed for a few days starting Thursday during the retrofitting process. The tents will be reconfigured to allow for drive-through access for the disabled, Kim said.

"You need heavy equipment to move those things," and the work will take a few days, Kim said.

The Santa Ana College vaccine site reopens Wednesday, more than a week after it was shut down due to a shortfall in vaccine supply stemming from weather-related delays.

The Super POD at the Anaheim Convention Center and Soka University have allowed for more access for disabled residents. The Santa Ana College site is considered a "medium POD," which services residents in the immediate zip code, which is hard hit due to coronavirus.

Chaffee discussed the lingering challenge with dealing with coronavirus in Orange County, one of the biggest being the Othena App brought on board to manage the registration process. Though Patch has received hundreds of letters from residents who feel the app has mismanaged their vaccination, Chaffee expressed that Composite Apps "may have underbid the project."

Read: Othena: OC Residents Question Vaccine Scheduling App's History

"It was a brand new system, and no one else had an app to handle the vaccination process," he told Patch. According to Chaffee, Composite Apps that built the registration app has a representative at every Super POD to handle issues with the app. "If a registration is lost, they can refresh the system and find it," he says. "The app has come a long way."

Still, the biggest issue for the current 319,801 people still "waiting" for vaccination appointments is a lack of vaccine, Chaffee says. That is something that the board of supervisors looks to Blue Shield to address. "We've got to keep the supply of vaccines coming in," he said.

Most recently, all supervisorial districts are getting the assistance of Mobile Vaccination PODS that go into the community, assist those who have no computer access or have been unsuccessful in finding vaccine appointments, and meet the state's criteria.

The Mobile PODS are in the 4th district every Saturday, he says. If there are appointments left over, there is a waiting list of people who will be notified.

Orange County officials have not yet received word on when Johnson & Johnson vaccines will arrive here.

There were 425 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in the county, up from 419 on Monday, but the level of ICU patients decreased from 119 on Monday to 116.

The death toll logged on Tuesday included two skilled nursing facility residents, increasing the cumulative total in that category to 956, and five assisted living facility residents, upping that total to 446.

Of the deaths reported on Tuesday, increased the death toll for January to 1,245, 884 for December, and 119 in February. January was the deadliest month since the pandemic began.

The county had 31.2% of its ICU beds available and 64% of its ventilators.

Reopening Orange County

Meanwhile, Knott's Berry Farm announced a virtual "National Hiring Day" Monday scheduled for March 13 in anticipation of its plan to prepare for reopening.

The Buena Park theme park is looking to hire about 1,700 people for various jobs, including food and beverage, cooks, ride operators, lifeguards, and janitorial services.

Disneyland Resort has announced a food festival for the ride-less reopening of Disney California Adventure in Mid-March. Tickets will cost $75 and include a $25 food voucher as well as parking.

Read: Disney California Adventure Introduces 'Touch Of Disney' Event In March

Most importantly, according to Chaffee, "the virus can bite you, whatever your beliefs are." People will need to remain patient, wear masks, wash their hands, and keep social distancing until the coronavirus has been beaten once and for all.

Have you been vaccinated yet? What are you most looking forward to when Orange County reopens? Let us know in comments, or by emailing your Patch editor.