Marin's July Home Sales Down, Median Price Up

MARIN COUNTY, CA — Real estate data released this week shows July sales of homes in Marin County dropped 15.8 percent from the same month last year and 18.3 percent compared to June sales — similar to drops seen across the San Francisco Bay Area, where July homes sales dropped 13.5 percent from one year ago, but only 10.5 percent compared to one month ago, according to CoreLogic.

In July, 3o3 new and resale houses and condominiums were sold in Marin County, compared to 371 in June and 360 in July 2015.

The median home sale price in Marin last month was $950,000, one-tenth of a percent higher than the median of $949,500 last month and a 7.3 percent increase when compared to July 2015's median of $885,000.

The median price paid for all homes sold in the San Francisco Bay Area in July 2016 was $700,000. This was down 1.4 percent month over month from a record $710,000 in June 2016* and up 6.3 percent year over year from $658,500 in July 2015. The average change in the median sale price between June and July since 1988 is a decline of 0.2 percent. While on a year-over-year basis, the median sale price has risen for 52 consecutive months, CoreLogic's data shows.

A total of 7,901 new and resale houses and condominiums sold in Alameda, Contra Costa,Marin, Napa, Santa Clara, San Francisco, San Mateo, Solano and Sonoma counties in July, down 10.5 percent month over month from 8,830 sales in June* and down 13.5 percent year over year from 9,130 sales in July 2015.

Since 1988, the average change in sales between June and July has been a decline of 5.5 percent, and sales have fallen on a year-over-year basis for the past four consecutive months. July sales have ranged from a low of 6,666 in 1995 to a high of 14,258 in 2004, and July 2016 sales were 14.5 percent below the July average of 9,246 sales since 1988 when data for this report begins (data start dates vary by county).

In July, sales of newly built homes – detached houses and condos combined – were 35.3 percent below the month's average. Resales in July were 12.3 percent below the July average, but ignoring the 2003-2006 housing boom that was fueled by risky home loans, last month's resales were 7.4 percent below the month's long-term average.

"San Francisco Bay Area home sales fell below a year earlier for the fourth consecutive month in July, when sales were the lowest for that month in five years," said Andrew LePage, research analyst with CoreLogic. "Since early this year, the general trend across the region's nine counties has been for sales to either fall year over year or for lower gains."

According to LePage, sales have been constrained by waning affordability, a low inventory in many markets, moderately tight credit and, specifically last month, a "quirk of the calendar."

"This July had 20 business days for transactions to be recorded in the public record compared with 22 business days in both June 2016 and July 2015," LePage said. "The last time sales dropped sharply — about 13 percent — between June and July was in 2011, which was also the last time the month of July had only 20 business days for recordings (the result of five weekends landing in the month). The average number of home sale transactions recorded daily in July 2016 was only about 2 percent lower than in June 2016 and about 5 percent lower than in July 2015."

CoreLogic's data shows San Francisco Bay Area's median sale price in July eased back a bit from the record level it hit in June, ending a three-month stretch in which each month set a new record.

"Although last month's median was 1.4 percent lower than the all-time high in June 2016, when adjusted for inflation the July median was still 12 percent below the peak median from the last real estate cycle," LePage said.

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