By the Data: Orange County is Fine

County data suggests that Orange County COVID-19 infections are trending down after they peaked on 11/25, and are trending down at a rate faster than following the peak in July. Already daily infection rates are down to the post-peak levels in late July. However there is always a delay in receiving and tallying test results--so very recent data is always incomplete and is subject to change.

The red line in the graph above shows the moving average of positive COVID tests by the date the test was conducted. This peaked 11/25 and has been trending down sharply since then. The November peak was slightly higher than the July peak, but data so far suggests that positive test numbers have been decreasing at a faster rate than in July and are now already nearly down to post-July-peak levels.

Note that viewing positive tests by date samples are collected (instead of date reported) makes sense from a health perspective. Data by date the test results are reported is very spikey (the yellow line)--and fluctuates due to testing backlog, weekends/holidays, delays in reporting, and other anomalies. Furthermore, by the time a patient gets a positive test result, they are on average about 1/3 of the way to recovery. If test data is to be used to draw conclusions about likely future trends, utilizing moving averages based on the date of sample collection makes the most sense.

Hospital ICU Bed Capacity is Good

There are a total of 596 ICU beds in Orange County. Of these, currently 195 are in use for COVID patients as of 12/5. Thus only 1/3 (32.7%) of ICU beds are in use for COVID patients.

In total, hospitals in the county have 18.1% available capacity of ICU beds as of 12/5. Thus there are 108 beds available, and 488 in use. In other words, 40% of ICU beds currently in use are due to COVID.

"Regional" Penalty

Note that Orange County's current 18.1% available capacity of ICU beds is greater than the 15% minimum required to avoid stay-at-home orders. If evaluated on a per-county basis, Orange County would not be subject to the governor's new stay-at-home orders. However, the state evaluates the numbers on a "regional" basis (see map below for the strange shape of the "Southern California" region). Many of the inland counties that make up the region have fewer hospitals than costal counties like Orange County. Did you know that Mono County and Inyo County are considered "Southern California"??

Understanding "Positivity"

Using cumulative data, on average in the county 5.6% of COVID PCR tests come back positive. This value is referred to as "positivity" of test results. The 7-day moving average positivity rate is 8.8%--so current positivity rate is higher than average. In other words a higher percentage of recent test results are positive than the cumulative average. But positivity says as much if not more about who is taking the test than it does about the rate of infection: higher positivity means that on a percentage basis, fewer non-COVID infected people are getting tested. There are lots of reasons why a non-COVID-infected person would not get tested. The more non-COVID-infected people that are tested, the lower the "positivity" number.

Positivity by Zip Code

Compared to National Perspective

According to data visualized by The Washington Post, there are only 9 states with a LOWER number of cases than California on a population basis (number of cases per 100,000 people) when considering cumulative data. California is BETTER off than most states. When looking at a 7-day rolling average, there are 13 states with a lower number of population-adjusted cases than California--so the infection rate in California has increased faster than in some states. But still, 36 states are worse off than California in terms of the number of recent cases per 100,000 people.

Of the 36 states that are worse off than California, more than half show 7-day rolling average trends that have peaked and have started to fall--some of them substantially. This is good news: this tends to confirm what the recent Orange County data shows: that the rate of new infections is trending down.

Why the Fuss?

With all the data suggesting that Orange County is in good shape and that testing results are moving in the right direction, one must ask: Why Orange County is entering a lockdown at this time?

Part of the answer lies in Sacramento's decision to consider large regions made up of dissimilar counties rather than to allow individual counties to make prudent decisions. And why would Sacramento do that? Whatever the reasons, concern for the health and prosperity of individual residents of Orange County are certainly not involved.

Is there any worrisome data from Orange County? Well, hospitalizations have increased beyond the July peak and have not yet begun to decrease. But we know that hospitalizations will follow infections: people are not hospitalized before they get sick, and when people recover they leave the hospital. Since infection rates are trending down, hospitalization rates are sure to trend down as well. Since COVID patients typically recover within about 14 days of becoming ill, we'd expect to see hospitalization rates begin trending down 14 days after 11/25, or on December 10.

Part of trusting the "science" means understanding data and drawing meaningful conclusions. Yes, if you look at the increase in hospitalizations since mid-November and project out that the increase will continue at that same rate indefinitely unless we "do something", the prospects are frightening. But if we see that trends across the country show infection rates are trending down, and preliminary (incomplete) county data too shows that Orange County infection rates are trending down, it would be irrational to make policy decisions on projecting a continual increase of hospitalizations. Hospitalizations will begin to go down soon since infection rates are trending down.

The Sky Isn't Falling

I don't want anyone to get sick. I have had two family members recover from COVID, and the worse-than-flu symptoms are no fun. And I also understand that for some vulnerable people the effects of COVID can be much worse, or even fatal.

But public policy must be made in the best interest of the public. Individuals should be educated and empowered to make good personal decisions to protect their health and the health of those around them.

Ordering businesses to close and people to stay home in isolation has tremendous negative impact. Claims that stay-at-home orders "stop the spread" are dubious at best: infection rate curves are similar from state-to-state, regardless of the public health policies that have been in place.

But even "if" stay-at-home orders work, are they warranted in Orange County at this time? The data would suggest that they are not needed, and thus would do more harm than good: infection rates are trending down already.

What is more, more than 97% of the population of Orange County has never tested positive for COVID. And of the 2.7% that have at some point tested positive, 71% of these have already recovered.

A recurring theme of the pandemic has been treating healthy people as though they are ill. This is harmful to individuals, and to counties. Orange County is doing fine... without Sacramento's intervention.

• ICU Bed Capacity (see page 45)
• COVID Hospitalizations (graph by Voice of OC)
• Infection Trends (graph by Voice of OC)
• Available ICU Capacity (and current stay-at-home details)
• Positivity by Zip Code
• Summary Map of California COVID Regions
• Detailed Map of California COVID Regions
• State-by-State Trends
• County Health Data
• County COVID Dashboard