Santa Cruz County Eyes Orange Tier As Vaccination Push Continues

SANTA CRUZ COUNTY, CA — Santa Cruz County has been in the red tier for just two days, but the good news keeps coming.

Public health officials remain cautiously optimistic as COVID-19 statistics continue to improve locally and across the nation, said Dr. Gail Newel, Santa Cruz County's health officer, in a Thursday news conference.

Newel anticipated that after spending three weeks in the red "substantial risk" tier, Santa Cruz County will likely move down another level, into the orange "moderate risk" tier of the state's four-tiered, color-coded COVID-19 risk system, she said. And at the state level, talks of adding a green tier — the lowest yet — are in the works.

Officials were once concerned about a springtime surge, but it doesn't look like that will pan out, she said. The surge might look more like a plateau, if anything, though Newel expressed some concern about the possibility of schools and businesses further reopening at the same time as a possible uptick in travel for spring break.

She reminded the public that Californians remain under a travel advisory, which calls on people to stay within 120 miles of home and avoid recreational travel, and discourages non-Californians from traveling to the state for recreation.

Santa Cruz County continues to forge ahead with its vaccination efforts and remains the sixth out of California's 58 counties when it comes to vaccination rate.

Mimi Hall, the county's Health Services Agency director, said she hopes that vaccine allocations will grow by the first week of April. "We look forward to being able to accelerate the rate of vaccinations in Santa Cruz County," she said.

Twenty-nine percent of Santa Cruz County residents 16 and older have received at least one dose of the vaccine, said Dr. David Ghilarducci, the county's deputy health officer. The same is true for four in five people 75 and older and for three in four people 65 and older. All local teachers have been offered the vaccine.

Officials believed everyone in the county will have been offered a vaccine by early October, though Ghilarducci said he suspected that date will get moved up as the vaccine supply improves in the months ahead.

Californians 16 to 64 with select preexisting conditions will be eligible to receive the vaccine as of Monday. Ghilarducci said officials are in regular communication with clinics regarding the eligibility criteria since clinics are aware of which patients are at risk of developing serious COVID-19 complications. Officials expected interest to exceed vaccine supply. But Ghilarducci believed the county is well poised to address the increasing demand.

Anyone who believes she meets the criteria should have a conversation with her doctor to clarify whether she qualifies for a COVID-19 vaccine as of Monday, he said.

A vaccination strike team is also in the works to ensure homebound people receive their doses, Ghilarducci said.

Still, it's too soon to say whether or not the county will return to the most-strict purple tier, Newel said. So much remains unknown about the coronavirus.

Public health officials were unsure why the curve of COVID-19 cases has decreased even more dramatically than it rose or how long COVID-19 immunity lasts after a person receives a vaccine or gets ill, she said. Perhaps the virus has a seasonal component, and a surge in COVID-19 cases will be seen each year — albeit a smaller one as people continue to get vaccinated.

The hardest thing to predict, said Ghilarducci, is human behavior.

Officials continued to stress that people should continue following precautions, particularly the elderly and medically vulnerable.

Nearly 15,000 COVID-19 cases have been reported in Santa Cruz County since the beginning of the pandemic, including some 280 active cases and 190 deaths linked to the coronavirus.