Biden Surges And Sanders Wears The Target As Candidates Drop Out

LOS ANGELES, CA — Heading into Super Tuesday, Sen. Bernie Sanders has a strong lead among California’s voters, but former Vice President Joe Biden is the candidate with the momentum, having run away with the South Carolina primary. Three moderate candidates dropped out since Saturday, and suddenly it’s looking like the ‘Bernie v. Biden race.’

As California and 13 other states head to the polls Tuesday, Sanders is the candidate to beat. A slew of polls show him with double digit leads in the delegate-rich Golden State, and he’s atop the crowded field of Democratic presidential contenders with 60 delegates already racked up. But Biden is close behind with 53 delegates thanks to his dominant performance in South Carolina where he won 48.4 percent to Sanders’ 19.9 percent. To complicate matters, Pete Buttigieg, the third-runner up in delegates, dropped out of the race Sunday as did billionaire Tom Steyer. and Sen. Amy Klobuchar. Both Buttigieg and Klobuchar promptly endorsed Biden. So what does the winnowing of contenders mean for the primary race and for Californians, nearly half of whom have already voted? And what effect could this ever-changing primary have on down-ballot Congressional races?

It’s Complicated.

Buttigieg is a moderate, and it stands to reason that other moderates such as Biden would benefit from his dropping out of the race. But Buttigieg and Sen. Elizabeth Warren share the same base — primarily white, college-educated voters. Buttigieg’s rise coincided with Warren’s drop in the polls, and his supporters could also flock to her camp now that he has bowed out. Another option for moderate Democrats is billionaire candidate Michael Bloomberg, who will appear on a ballot for the first time Tuesday, having skipped the early voting states. The former New York mayor has spent in excess of $538 million in advertising and field operations, banking on a strong Super Tuesday showing, according to Bloomberg News.

SEE ALSO: It's Super Tuesday: Your guide to the California Primary

Yet for many California voters, it’s simply too late to pick a new favorite. Californians have been voting by mail for weeks and at early voting centers. More than a third of voters have already cast their ballots, and there are no do-overs.

“Our data suggests 40 percent of those who will participate have already voted,” Paul Mitchell of the campaign research firm Political Data Inc., told the Los Angeles Times.

However, since the ballots were printed, nearly half the candidates have dropped out or suspended their campaigns.

The polls in recent weeks show Sanders and Warren winning with California’s liberal electorate.
A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll released Thursday has Sanders with 34 percent of the vote followed by Warren at 17 percent, Bloomberg at 12 percent, Buttigieg at 11 percent and Biden, a distant fifth at 8 percent.

A Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll of likely California Democratic primary voters shows Biden already making strides but still trailing Sanders and Bloomberg. According to that poll, Sanders has the support of 35 percent, Bloomberg has 16 percent, Biden has 14 percent, and Warren has 12 percent.

Buttigieg and Klobuchar’s withdrawals are bound to have a dramatic impact on one or more candidates chasing Sanders. Their support for Biden signals an effort to coalesce around a single moderate in time to try to catch up to Sanders who outpolls his opponents in key Super Tuesday races.

“This is a very dynamic situation,” said Robert Shrum, Director of the Center for the Political Future at USC Dornsife.

According to Shrum, a big victory in South Carolina is likely to propel Biden across the threshold for earning delegates in California. The state only awards delegates to candidates who receive at least 15 percent of the vote in a given congressional district or 15 percent statewide.

If Biden surges in California on the strength of his South Carolina victory, centrist voters may see his candidacy as the one to coalesce around in opposition to Sanders, said Shrum. Until now, that moderate vote has been divvied up in the polls between Biden, Buttigieg, Bloomberg, Steyer and Klobuchar.

A lot of Democrats in California are conflicted and are waiting until the end to decide, said Fred Smoller, professor of political science at Chapman University. Biden’s recent success may have provided some clarity.

“There is going to be a weeding out as people coalesce around the person who is in opposition to Bernie Sanders,” said Smoller. “It’s going to be a Sanders-Biden race.”

However, the Bloomberg campaign is resisting pressure to drop out of the race on the heels of Biden’s South Carolina victory. And Bloomberg has unlimited funds to stay in the race as long as he wants, said Shrum. Big names in the Democratic establishment came out and endorsed Biden over the weekend in a bid to increase pressure on Bloomberg to drop out. Bloomberg announced his candidacy based on the logic that no candidate was emerging who could beat Trump, but that is now looking like a fallacy. David Axelrod, a former strategist for President Barack Obama, told CNN.

“As long as Biden is competitive in this race — as he apparently will be now — where’s the path for Bloomberg here?” Axelrod said. “He and his team are going to have to have a hard discussion if Biden’s momentum continues on Tuesday and he finishes second and closest to Bernie Sanders.”
Further ramping up the pressure was an announcement by a Klobuchar aid that she will drop out of the race Monday and endorse Biden.

As his divided opponents begin to unify, Sanders is making the case that he is the best candidate to beat President Donald Trump in November. Polls show that he is strong with Latinos and young people, Smoller said. And those same polls show that he is leading Trump in a generic matchup.
“The polls don't appear to indicate that Trump beats him right now. Right now he beats Trump in most polls,” Shrum said. “We’ll have to see how the campaign plays out.”

The Other House

The White House isn’t the only house at stake as voters head to the polls. Once again, the battle for control of the House of Representatives goes right through California. The fate of many Congressional candidates could rest on the shoulders of the parties’ standard bearers.

“It depends who the Democrats nominate,” Said Smoller. “The best thing that is going to happen if you are a Republican candidate in this is if Bernie Sanders is the nominee.”

That’s because moderate Republicans and Independents in purple districts might vote for a moderate Democrat over Trump, who remains extremely unpopular in California, said Smoller.

“What these people want is stability. They want quiet competency,” said Smoller. “They would hold their nose and vote for Bloomberg. They would never vote for Sanders, but they could vote for a Bloomberg.”

If Trump were to win re-election, he’s likely to have some very long coattails, Smoller added. The Republican establishment is watching who comes out of the Congressional primaries very closely.

“Right now they aren't going to waste any resources, but they are going to be watching for who emerges from the primaries,” Smoller said.

About seven freshman Democrats rode into office on California's blue wave in the 2018 midterms in newly purple district’s such as Orange County.

There is no blue wave this time around, said Smoller. Republicans see a chance to pick off those vulnerable freshman.

“The seven Democrats who won ran with a blank slate in 2018 now have to run on their records,” Torunn Sinclair of the National Republican Congressional Committee told KTLA. “They have to answer for why nothing is getting done.”

Whereas seven seats flipped from Republican to Democratic in California last election season, no seats in the state are considered toss-ups this time around, according to the Cook Political Report. Still, five seats — all currently held by Democrats — are considered competitive. Though prognosticators may give the Democratic incumbents the edge, their Republican challengers have a real shot at unseating them just as they all did to Republican incumbents two years ago.
The five California districts The Cook Political Report lists as competitive include:

• The 10th District seat in the northern San Joaquin Valley held by Democrat Josh Harder
• The 21st District seat also in the San Joaquin Valley held by Democrat TJ Cox
• The 39th District in northeastern Orange County held by Democrat Gil Cisneros
• The 45th District in inland south Orange County held by Democrat Katie Porter
• The 48th District in coastal Orange County held by Democrat Harley Rouda.

California’s 25th District straddling Los Angeles and Ventura counties is listed by Cook as likely Democratic, but it’s shaping up to be a highly competitive race since incumbent Katie Hill resigned amid allegations of sexual misconduct. Now a motley crew off 13 candidates are vying for her seat including a Trump aid imprisoned in the Russia scandal and Stephen Knight, the former Republican congressman Hill unseated in 2018.

All five incumbents hold seats in districts that were red just three years ago, and Porter and Rouda hold office in districts where Republican voters outnumber Democrats. Cisneros’ district is fairly evenly split among Republicans and Democrats. Of the vulnerable incumbents, only Cox and Harder hold seats in Districts where their party makes up a majority of the voters.

“It’s all about turnout,” said Smoller.

SEE ALSO:

• Sanders Surges In California, Trump Faces 'Wipeout,' Polls Say
• An Earlier Say: Race To The White House Runs Through California
• Where CA Political Action Is — And Isn’t — In 2020 (Opinion)
• CA Voters Face Hundreds Of Local Tax Measures (Op)
• Last-Minute Special Interest Cash Pours Through California’s $50,000 Loophole
• California's Primary Rules Beget Mind-Bender Campaigns