School Of Mines Report: More Drilling Areas If Prop. 112 Passes

GOLDEN, CO – An analysis by a Colorado School of Mines professor shows that the state's sub-surface area available for drilling oil and gas is larger than expected, even if a Colorado "2,500-foot setback" ballot measure passes.

Peter Maniloff, assistant professor of economics at Mines, says he's expanding on a July study by the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission asserting that the amount of non-federal land available for above-ground wells would be slashed by 85 percent if voters pass Proposition 112 requiring above-ground wells to be set back from residential and business buildings.

Opponents of the ballot measure have pointed to the COGCC study as proof that voter approval would basically kill the state's oil and gas industry.

Maniloff's commentary, published through the university's policy arm, the Payne Institute, says that even if the above ground well sites are limited, the reach of those sites –through the process of horizontal drilling– would only be cut by 53 percent, allowing access to almost three times as much sub-surface real estate for drilling or fracking.

Most drilling and fracking in Colorado is achieved through a horizontal process where wells are dropped up to 7,000 feet below ground and then drilled horizontally, for up to two miles, to reach hydrocarbon locations for extraction.

"My study finds that even if 15 percent of the surface [land] would be available, [oil extractors could still reach] 42 percent of the sub-surface land from that 15 percent," Maniloff said.

"The COGCC does not dispute this commentary," said COGCC Spokesperson Travis Duncan. "The Colorado School of Mines study is a brief statement of what sub-surface area might be reached using horizontal drilling," Duncan said. "There is no analysis into engineering constraints or production potential for the areas this statement opens up."

Maniloff acknowledges that restricting oil and gas operations to a small portion of the surface would impose "substantial operational difficulties" on oil and gas companies.

Furthermore, oil and gas companies would have to expand to less-lucrative drilling areas.

Colorado's oil and gas "sweet spot" is the northeastern Colorado sections of the Denver-Julesberg basin, which don't include Denver, (despite the name). The drilling area is east of I-25, primarily in Weld County, where, for millennia, geologic forces have been pressuring down on the deep layer of hydrocarbons.

"The weight essentially cooked it for millions of years, making more productive hydrocarbons," Maniloff said.

Unfortunately, the area is also a sweet spot for Front Range population growth along I-25.

The struggle between extraction companies and Colorado's population boom has resulted in homes and businesses built in formerly empty fields where oil and gas was fracked by companies such as Extraction Oil and Gas, Anadarko Petroleum Corp, DCP Midstream LP and Noble Energy Inc. Those companies and others have donated more than $20 million to the "Protect Colorado" PAC to defeat the ballot measure.

Meanwhile, after a house exploded in Firestone in 2017, killing three people, it was revealed that more than 400 uncapped abandoned gas wells were located close to residential areas in Colorado.

"What happened in Firestone was there was an old well and they built a house near the well, which is perfectly legal," Maniloff said.

Meanwhile, studies released by the National Institutes of Health show that air emissions from oil and gas operations within one-half mile of human habitation contain more air pollutants exposing people to trimethylbenzenes, xylenes, and aliphatic hydrocarbons.

Maniloff agrees that Proposition 112 would have a negative economic effect on the state's economy that might push it into "a mild recession."

"The takeaway from my analysis is that the economic negative effects of Proposition 112 would be smaller than some have inferred by the CGOCC analysis, but would still be a very large effect on the oil industry in Colorado," he said.

Related: A Fractured State: Counties Divide Over Proposition 112

Related: Colorado Oil And Gas Industry Prepares For Battle At The Polls

Related: Oil And Gas Setback Battle To Be Decided By Voters

Related: Head of Colorado Oil And Gas Regulatory Agency Resigns

Related: CO Oil & Gas: Anadarko Safety Risks Revealed In Shareholder Suit

Related: Firestone House Explosion Caused By Leak From Pipeline

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