Real Estate
Greenwich Real Estate Guy's Blog: 2017 3rd Quarter Market Report
For a more viewer friendly version please visit www.greenwichrealestateguy.com/blog
Dear Patch Readers,
Pictured above is 3rd Quarter Market Report. Our CEO and President put out the following summary:
It's complicated. But good things are happening in our markets. We're finally seeing some fantastic movement in our higher priced properties. Sales of homes priced at more than $5 million increased more than 50 percent compared to 2016. Homes priced above $3 million rose 11 percent. Those price points have been challenging and so the significance should not be underestimated in assessing shifting market conditions. Overall, average home prices rose 21 percent.
Find out what's happening in Greenwichfor free with the latest updates from Patch.
The key for us is to understand what is driving the changes so we can continue to deliver the best results for you, our friends and clients.
Front and center is the increase in wealth driven by the stock market. The third quarter continued a remarkably consistent trend of market gains. The S&P 500 rose nearly 4 percent. The Dow moved up close to 5 percent. It was the 8th quarter in a row of gains for both indexes. Investors are getting strong and consistent returns. While no one can predict market performance going forward, the reality is that wealth has increased and the mindset of the buyer is better for it.
Find out what's happening in Greenwichfor free with the latest updates from Patch.
Fears of the demise of low interest rates were premature. Rates are still at extremely affordable levels. Wages continue to gradually move higher, and the job market remains tight despite a weaker-than-expected September employment report. The Fed may raise rates as soon as December. But the rate hikes in this cycle have been few and far between. The downside is that without the expected urgency of higher borrowing rates, buyers may still feel time is on their side and may feel they have more freedom to be cautious about locking in a deal.
We are also closely monitoring the impact of rising New York City prices on demand for Greenwich properties. As new families form and look for homes, that movement amplifies the value offered in our community.
Here are some trends we are seeing this fall:
The stark difference between average and median home prices tell us a lot. Average home prices, as mentioned above, rose 19 percent. The average home price was $2,670,809. Contrast that with a gain of just 5.2 percent in median home prices at $1,795,000. This indicates increasing demand at higher price points.
Overall, single-family home sales dropped sharply by 24 percent in Q3. Total dollar volume declined 7.9 percent. Fewer deals are being made, putting pressure on sellers to be extremely thoughtful in how they initially market their home. Buyers are quick to judge, and don't usually circle back if they passed on a home from the get go.
Nationally, the number of adjustable rate mortgages is on the rise, likely in response to higher home prices. That points to rate sensitivity, even at the slow pace that mortgage rates have been rising. Risk-averse buyers tend to favor the security of a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. But when affordability becomes an issue, they will often take a closer look at ARMs, because of the significantly lower rate. That's a red flag to sellers who may be tempted to price their home too aggressively. Many buyers are already feeling stretched.
High prices are holding millennials back. Recent data from Zillow showed that only 39 percent of millennials are able to put down the standard recommended 20 percent or higher down payment. The majority of millennials shopping to buy a home, 62 percent, are also looking at rentals. Sellers are not just competing against other sellers, they are also competing against landlords. The price has to be right.
Some regional statistics we'd like to share:
Greenwich North of the Parkway follows the trend of higher prices, with an average rise of 57 percent. But the area was also on-trend with fewer sales. Of note: the homes that sold, sold faster. Those homes also sold at a greater discount to their listing price. This is another indication that sellers need to be extremely strategic with pricing right out of the gate.
The numbers weren't as dramatic in Greenwich South of the Highway but the area remains on trend as well.
Fewer homes were sold, but average prices were higher. By far the most activity year-to-date and year-over-year was seen in entry level homes priced under a million dollars.
There has been some pickup in demand for high-end homes South of Post Road. The numbers are small at this point, but it is an area we are closely watching. Days on market has moved up, and sales overall are sluggish. A similar sales picture in Cos Cob. Despite average sales prices jumping 25 percent compared to the third quarter of 2016, the number of sales is down.
The most demand in Riverside remains for homes priced below a million dollars. Average days on market is a concern with an increase of 62 percent. When homes sold, it was at lower prices. The average sale price in the area fell more than 16 percent. That is something sellers must be mindful of when setting prices. Deals don't get done if homes are priced incorrectly. Small tweaks can be very meaningful at these lower price points.
Old Greenwich continues to benefit from its appeal to buyers leaving New York City. The average sale price skyrocketed 67 percent. But once again, the number of sales fell. The best buyers will remain selective, especially at perceived lofty price levels.
We can't stress it enough: deals happen with homes priced correctly on day one. This is not a high volume market, and buyers are still often in the driver's seat when it comes to home selection. They can often simply wait for the right deal.
We look forward to a productive season, and to celebrating a successful 2017 serving our community.
Stephen Meyers CEO
Chris Meyers President
Below are the 76 open houses this Sunday.
Street Name
Area
List Price
Time
Listing Office
36 Cos Cob Avenue
Cos Cob
$3.15K
1-4 p.m.
BHHS
28 Boulder Brook Road
Greenwich
$7.995K
12-3 p.m.
Raveis
178 Putnam Park
Greenwich
$385K
1-4 p.m.
BHHS
117 Putnam Park
Greenwich
$399K
1-3 p.m.
Coldwell Banker
16 Pemberwick Road
Greenwich
$569K
2-4 p.m.
Raveis
45 Ettl Lane #503
Greenwich
$678K
1:30-3:30 p.m.
Coldwell Banker
36 Cos Cob Avenue
Cos Cob
$719K
1-4 p.m.
BHHS
45 Ettl Lane #401
Greenwich
$725K
1:30-3:30 p.m.
Weichert
20 Church Street #B55
Greenwich
$729K
1-3 p.m.
Coldwell Banker
57 Greenwich Hills
Greenwich
$865K
2-4 p.m.
Sotheby's
47 Glen Road
Greenwich
$998K
1-4 p.m.
Sotheby's
46 Crawford Terrace
Riverside
$999K
1-4 p.m.
BHHS
91 Stonehedge Drive
Greenwich
$1.049M
1-3 p.m.
Coldwell Banker
16 Hawthorne Street #2
Greenwich
$1.05M
1-4 p.m.
BHHS
10 Licata Terrace
Cos Cob
$1.05M
1-4 p.m.
Sotheby's
16 Hawthorne Street #4
Greenwich
$1.15M
1-4 p.m.
BHHS
16 Hawthorne Street #1
Greenwich
$1.15M
1-4 p.m.
BHHS
16 Hawthorne Street #3
Greenwich
$1.15M
1-4 p.m.
BHHS
101 Lewis Street #M
Greenwich
$1.195M
4-6 p.m.
Keller Williams
33 Lockwood Lane
Riverside
$1.278M
1-3 p.m.
Weichert
53 Edgewater Drive
Old Greenwich
$1.28M
1-3 p.m.
Coldwell Banker
21 Indian Mill Road
Cos Cob
$1.295M
1-3 p.m.
Halstead
15 Sundance Drive
Cos Cob
$1.299M
1-3 p.m.
Coldwell Banker
65 Stonehedge Drive
Greenwich
$1.325M
1-3 p.m.
Sotheby's
10 Mianus View Terrace
Cos Cob
$1.395M
2-4 p.m.
BHHS
151 Elm Street
Greenwich
$1.45M
12-2 p.m.
Coldwell Banker
14 Tyler Lane
Riverside
$1.4999M
1-3 p.m.
Coldwell Banker
109 Dingletown Road
Greenwich
$1.6M
1-3 p.m.
Sotheby's
14 Weston Hill Road
Riverside
$1.649M
1-3 p.m.
Coldwell Banker
311 Cognewaugh Road
Cos Cob
$1.675M
1-3 p.m.
Sotheby's
94 Valleywood Road
Cos Cob
$1.725M
1-3 p.m.
David Ogilvy
80 Elm Street #A
Greenwich
$1.75M
2-4 p.m.
Houlihan Lawrence
34 Ettl Lane
Greenwich
$1.797M
1-3 p.m.
Coldwell Banker
28 Boulder Brook Road
Greenwich
$1.799M
12-3 p.m.
Raveis
182 Milbank Avenue #A
Greenwich
$1.85M
2-4 p.m.
Houlihan Lawrence
29 Lincoln Avenue
Old Greenwich
$1.875M
1-3 p.m.
BHHS
33 Ferncliff Road
Cos Cob
$1.999M
1-4 p.m.
Douglas Elliman
31 Evergreen Road
Greenwich
$2M
12-2 p.m.
Houlihan Lawrence
128 Valley Drive
Greenwich
$2.09M
2-4 p.m.
Sotheby's
12 Nimitz Place
Old Greenwich
$2.195M
1-4 p.m.
BHHS
17 Salem Street
Cos Cob
$2.295M
1-4 p.m.
Raveis
4 Keofferam Road
Old Greenwich
$2.295M
2-4 p.m.
Houlihan Lawrence
76 Burning Tree Road
Greenwich
$2.3M
1-4 p.m.
New England
18 Red Coat Lane
Greenwich
$2.35M
1-3 p.m.
BHHS
50 Hillcrest Park
Old Greenwich
$2.499M
1:30-3 p.m.
Raveis
2 Dartmouth Road
Cos Cob
$2.55M
1-4 p.m.
David Ogilvy
110 Patterson Avenue
Greenwich
$2.595M
12-3 p.m.
Halstead
474 North Street
Greenwich
$2.675M
2-4 p.m.
Houlihan Lawrence
26 Forest Avenue
Old Greenwich
$2.795M
1-3 p.m.
Sotheby's
7 Carriage Road
Cos Cob
$2.895M
1-3 p.m.
Coldwell Banker
4 Mountain Laurel Drive
Greenwich
$2.995M
1-4 p.m.
Raveis
22 Widgeon Way
Greenwich
$2.999M
2-4 p.m.
Houlihan Lawrence
85 Perkins Road
Greenwich
$3M
1-3 p.m.
BHHS
17 Cottontail Road
Cos Cob
$3.195M
1-4 p.m.
Houlihan Lawrence
523 North Street
Greenwich
$3.195M
1-3 p.m.
Halstead
14 Sherwood Farm Lane
Greenwich
$3.295M
1-3 p.m.
Halstead
25 Owenoke Way
Riverside
$3.475M
2-4 p.m.
Raveis
82 Cat Rock
Cos Cob
$3.4999M
1-3 p.m.
BHHS
18 Flower Lane
Greenwich
$3.595M
1-4 p.m.
New England
20 Alpine Road
Greenwich
$3.795M
2-4 p.m.
Coldwell Banker
36 Montgomery Lane
Greenwich
$3.795M
1-3 p.m.
Douglas Elliman
80 Cat Rock Road
Cos Cob
$3.9808M
1-3 p.m.
BHHS
52 Lockwood Avenue
Old Greenwich
$3.995M
12- 1 p.m.
Raveis
851 Lake Avenue
Greenwich
$4.195M
3-5 p.m.
Coldwell Banker
128 Porchuck Road
Greenwich
$4.299M
1-4 p.m.
BHHS
636 Riversville Road
Greenwich
$4.495M
1-4 p.m.
Sotheby's
2 Ledge Road
Old Greenwich
$4.65M
1-3 p.m.
BHHS
5 Crossway
Old Greenwich
$5.4M
1-3 p.m.
Halstead
33 Willowmere Circle
Riverside
$5.45M
1-3 p.m.
Houlihan Lawrence
38 Dairy Road
Greenwich
$5.495M
12-4 p.m.
Coldwell Banker
19 Porchuck Road
Greenwich
$5.675M
1-3 p.m.
Anderson Associates
15 Point Lane
Old Greenwich
$5.85M
1-4 p.m.
Sotheby's
85 Indian Head Road
Riverside
$6.75M
2:30-4:30 p.m.
Coldwell Banker
15 Reynwood Manor
Greenwich
$8.9M
1-3 p.m.
Douglas Elliman
125 Pecksland Road
Greenwich
$10.5M
1-3 p.m.
Keller Williams
35 Mooreland Road
Greenwich
$11.25M
1-3 p.m.
Sotheby's
11 Round Hill Club
Greenwich
$13.75M
2-4 p.m.
Halstead
I have paid to open the MLS to you, so feel free to search properties based on your own parameters or set up a portal to get notifications on a customized search. For readers that just follow on the Greenwich Patch I will not be posting all entries on the patch. You can read all postings at ###a shape="rect">www.greenwichrealestateguy.com/blog.
If easier, please ) or call (203-273-1034) if I can assist in any way.
Best,
Jared Randall Join my Mailing List
Houlihan Lawrence Greenwich Search Properties