Real Estate
Greenwich Real Estate Guy's Blog: 4th Quarter Market Report
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As we have discussed 2016 was a tough year for Greenwich Real Estate. For Greenwich as a whole (including Cos Cob, Old Greenwich and Riverside) we were down 4.5% in transactions, with average prices down 9.1% and median prices down 8.4%.
Strongest Aspect of Market
The trends we have been discussing here for the last few years has been the lower price ranges being much more competitive, and seeing people moving closer to the hubs of town. The appeal of walking to schools, transportation, shopping, restaurants, etc. has proved more important than lot size and size of homes. 2016 proved this once again as the only section if all of Greenwich to have transactions, average price and median price grow. In town Greenwich saw transactions up 15.4%, average price up 24.6% and median sale price up 42.6%.
Hope for 2017
As you can see from clicking the 4th Quarter report it was a tough year overall. However, when we look at the market reports for December we see wildly different conclusions. It seems that the fear of the unknown with the election hurt the market and with rates ticking up, and the hope for less regulation in the financial markets, we may be seeing a different market in 2017. Notice the difference between the 4th Quarter and year over year stats in the 4th Quarter report vs. the monthly reports:
Here is the Executive Summary for the Q4 Summary:
Happy New Year to our Greenwich community!
We ring in 2017 with an increased level of clarity tied to a newly-elected President focused on economic prosperity. The election of Donald Trump caught many off guard but now that it is in the record books, we are able to look forward without the distraction of election uncertainty.
There are changes on tap. Interest rates have already moved up, and we expect to see the Federal Reserve raise rates as many as three times this year. That will make it more expensive to buy homes that need financing. But we also expect to see more liquidity among buyers. Capital gains taxes are expected to be lower under President Trump.
Houlihan Lawrence remains the leading brokerage serving Greenwich, Connecticut after a year that included more than $800 million in sales. We'd like to thank our world class agents and staff for delivering results to our wonderful buyer and seller clients.
The U.S. financial markets had a fantastic year in 2016, with the Dow up more than 13 percent. End of year gains centered on the financial sector, which is a big income driver for our community. Much of the upward trend was driven by the belief that regulations under President Trump will be relaxed, and will boost the financial sector including hedge funds. Earnings growth is expected to continue to improve, providing support for the markets.
Some of that newly created capital could shift to real estate as investors with stock market gains look to diversify their portfolios. It will also provide the capital for more first-time home owners as well as the ability for current home owners to upgrade.
Here are some trends we are seeing as we move as 2017 gets underway:
There is optimism in the business community about President Trump.
His win caught many off guard and there are many uncertainties.
But overall his administration is expected to be pro-business and that has created a sense of relief. Corporate earnings began to grow at the end of 2016 and that trend should continue and accelerate in the first half of 2017.
Price will be the most important data point to determine success for sellers. While sales have not been as strong
as we would have liked, prices have held steady, providing confirmation that our market remains solid. Sellers must
continue to be well-informed when deciding on the initial price for their property. Initial pricing remains the most important determining factor in how quickly a home will sell.
Time now represents risk for buyers. Rising interest rates will mean that waiting for a price drop could have longterm
cost consequences when it comes to financing. The same house, at the same price, will become much more
expensive as rates move higher. Don't be distracted by the fact that a desirable property has been on the market for a
long time. Waiting for a small price cut could cost more in the long term.
It may be winter but there's not a lot of 'chilling out' going on. Activity is picking up and deals are being made, especially in the $1m-$2m,
and $3 -$5m range. That's on top of completed deals, which are focused on the entry level, below $2m range.
Some regional statistics we'd like to share:
The standout winner this past quarter was Old Greenwich. The area had impressive gains in both unit sales and pricing. Buyers are
willing to pay up for the areas fantastic new and renovated inventory. They want to be near the quaint village, convenient transportation and of course, the beach. What could be better than biking to town when the weather warms up?
The price performance medal of honor goes to Greenwich South of Post Road. Big ticket waterfront properties have been commanding,
and getting, higher prices. Also attractive enough to warrant higher price tags: new properties in town.
The emerging star is Greenwich South of the Parkway. Pending deals are soaring in the area, a good sign for 2017. That said
prudent sellers will be aware that prices have shown some softness, and be smart with how their property is presented on day one.
Cos Cob is also coming on strong. Prices in this centrally located part of town have jumped in the past quarter, and homes are sitting
on the market for fewer days.
Greenwich North of the Highway represent an opportunity for buyers. Unit sales are down, and buyers in the $3-$5m range will find
extraordinary value.
Riverside is still rebuilding. The neighborhood continues to correct after a post-tropical storm Sandy run-up, with accessible price point
available for buyers.
We are keeping a close eye on developments in Washington D.C. While there is a lot of change coming, we believe there is also a lot of excitement as well. Our community is showing great promise and we look forward to working with you in the new year.
Stephen Meyers
President and CEO
Chris Meyers
Managing Principal
Best,
Jared Randall Join my Mailing List
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