Nearly Two Dozen CT Communities Could Be Partially Underwater In 2100: Report

Tens of thousands of coastal Connecticut residents could be displaced from their homes by the end of this century if the latest sea level rise scenarios come to pass. The latest findings indicate at least 10 percent of the population in 23 Connecticut communities will be affected by sea level rise, which could lead to the displacement of approximately 48,000 people in those communities.

This extreme rise scenario, considered "unlikely but increasingly plausible," was composed in a report by the National and Oceanic Atmospheric Administration and published by the scientific publication Climate Central last week. (SIGN UP: Get Patch's Daily Newsletter and Real Time News Alerts. Or, if you have an iPhone, download the free Patch app.)

Of the 23 communities with more than 10 percent of their population at risk, sea level rise would affect 86 percent of the population in Saybrook Manor, the most of any community in the state. Stonington (6o percent), Groton Long Point (81 percent) and Fenwick (67 percent) are the three other communities where 50 percent of the population would be affected.

Several cities and large towns could also be significantly affected if the scenario comes to pass. Among those affected under the scenario are East Haven (19 percent), Stratford (18 percent), Milford (16 percent), East Haven (14 percent) and Westport (11 percent).

While not accounting for 10 percent of the city's populations, thousands of residents from some of the Nutmeg State's largest cities may be affected. Nine percent of Bridgeport residents(12,779), 8 percent of Stamford residents (9,701) and 8 percent of Norwalk residents (6,591) would be also be affected. Additionally, 6 percent of New Haven residents could be forced to leave their homes (7,430).

The latest sea level rise scenario says hundreds of American landmarks, neighborhoods, towns and cities would be submerged this century, at least in "the absence of engineering massive, costly and unprecedented defenses and relocating major infrastructure."

Ocean waters would cover land currently home to more than 12 million Americans and $2 trillion in property by 2100. NOAA said the impacts could be devastating for these landmarks: Kitty Hawk and Cape Canaveral; MIT and the U.S. Naval Academy; JFK and SFO; and the Jefferson Memorial and Mar-a-Lago.

In New York City, an average high tide would be 2 feet higher than Superstorm Sandy’s flood level, covering an area currently inhabited by more than 800,000 residents. Florida would be the most affected state by total population, followed by New York, California, Virginia and New Jersey.

These findings all reflect local sea level projections through 2100. Here are the Connecticut towns that would be most impacted — where at least 80 percent of the population would be impacted (population, percent of population):

• Saybrook Manor: 903, 86%
• Groton Long Point: 419, 81%
• Fenwick: 29, 67%
• Stonington: 554, 60%
• Guilford Center: 1,190, 46%
• Westbrook Center: 1,046, 43%
• Old Saybrook Center: 867, 43%
• Mystic: 1,557, 37%
• Clinton: 1,215, 36%
• Woodmont: 490, 33%
• Southport: 446, 28%
• Branford Center: 1,565, 27%
• Poquonock Bridge: 464, 27%
• Old Greenwich: 1,593, 24%
• Madison Center: 509, 22%
• East Haven: 5,677, 19%
• Stratford: 8,973, 18%
• Milford city (balance): 8,222, 16%
• West Haven: 7,618, 14%
• Niantic: 406, 13%
• Noank: 237, 13%
• Cos Cob: 840, 12%
• Westport: 2,867, 11%

Tom Davis, Patch Staff contributed to this report.

Image: The shore in Westbrook, CT, on Sunday Oct. 28, 2012, before Superstorm Sandy (Fred Beckham, Associated Press).