Old Farmer's Almanac Releases Winter 2019 NoVA, DC Forecast

WASHINGTON, DC — No need to unearth the snow shovel, tune up the snowblower or make sure the kids can still fit in their snowsuits. You can look forward to a warm winter with less snow than normal in northern Virginia this year – at least if you believe predictions from the Old Farmer's Almanac.

The folksy forecaster is saying the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast can expect to avoid a deep freeze and, though it's going to rain, most of that precipitation won't be frozen. The Old Farmer's Almanac, the iconic publication that's been serving up weather predictions since 1792, says that the coming winter will be one of above-normal temperatures throughout the country.

"This winter, we expect to see above-normal temperatures almost everywhere in the United States, except in the Southwest, where we're predicting a colder-than-normal season," the almanac said. "Our milder-than-normal forecast is due to a decrease in solar activity and the expected arrival of a weak El Niño, which will prevent cold air masses from lingering in the North."

Here is what the almanac specifically expects for northern Virginia and DC:

• Winter temperatures will be much above normal on average, with the coldest periods in early to mid-December, early and late January and early February.
• Precipitation will be slightly above normal, with below-normal snowfall amounts.
• The snowiest periods will occur in early December, late January and mid-February.
• April and May will be slightly warmer and drier than normal.

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The Farmer's Almanac doesn't use satellite data or other methods to make its predictions, but rather a secret mathematical and astronomical formula based on things like the moon's pull on the atmosphere, for example.

But it does brag about an 80 percent accuracy record. Last winter, it predicted a cold and snowy season for the DC region – in March. And, guess what: You'll see that forecast was correct. We were hit with brutal cold in January during a Nor'easter, with a second big storm in March, plus several other snow events.

"The formula takes things like sunspot activity, tidal action of the Moon, position of the planets, and a variety of other factors into consideration," according to the Almanac's website.

"The only person who knows the exact formula is the Farmers' Almanac weather prognosticator who goes by the pseudonym of Caleb Weatherbee. To protect this proprietary and reliable formula, the editors of the Farmers' Almanac prefer to keep both Caleb's true identity and the formula a closely guarded brand secret."

Kara Seymour, Patch National Staff, contributed to this article.

Image via the National Weather Service