If Democrats Take Back the Senate, Thank Trump

You wouldn’t know it by reading the news lately, but there’s more at stake in November than just the White House.

Democrats are feeling pretty sunny about their chances of winning back control of the Senate -- especially now that Donald Trump is, in his own words, the “presumptive nominee."

Senate seats are up for grabs this year: 34

Up-for-grabs Senate seats currently held by Republicans: 24

Number of GOP-held seats Dems need to win to retake the Senate: 5

Number of GOP-held seats that Dems have a good shot at winning: 8-10

Two things happened Tuesday to bolster Democrats’ optimism: Katie McGinty won the Pennsylvania Senate primary, and Donald Trump swept five states.

McGinty, a Democratic Party favorite, beat former U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak after President Obama campaigned for her. Vice President Joe Biden campaigned for her, too, and the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee spent more than $1 million on TV ads for her. And she won, 44-34. She'll face off against sitting Republican Sen. Pat Toomey in the fall.

Polls show Toomey beating McGinty by a comfortable margin. But that could change – which brings us to last night’s other big development.

Electoral experts Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics predict that in what they call a “Trumpmare” scenario, Pennsylvania’s contest for U.S. Senate shifts from “leans Republican” to a possible Democratic pickup, no matter what the polls say. And the Trumpmare is real: Trump is rapidly closing in on capturing the nomination.

But while Trump has proven his popularity with the Republican base in the primaries, he's deeply unpopular with the general electorate. Two-thirds of all voters have an unfavorable impression of him. Among Latinos -- a group the Republican party is desperate to woo -- the unfavorability rating rises to 85 percent. With such an unpopular presidential nominee at the top of the ticket, candidates further down the ballot could suffer. Some Republicans could stay home rather than vote for a candidate they disdain. Just being in the same party as Trump could taint candidates in other races.

Republican Rob Portman in Ohio could lose his seat under the “Trumpmare” scenario. Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire will likely be ousted by Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan. The seat Marco Rubio vacated in Florida to run for president could shift into the (D) column, though the contours of that race won’t become clear until the state’s August 30 Senate primary. Progressive heartthrob Russ Feingold is fighting his way back into the Senate after losing his seat in 2010, and he’s polling ahead of the Republican incumbent. And there’s almost no stopping Congresswoman and wounded Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth in Illinois. She’s expected to pick up Republican Sen. Mark Kirk’s seat there no matter what happens at the top of the ticket.

Anything could happen between now and November. Donald Trump could have a more convincing general election game than he’s telegraphed up until now. Maybe he really will start acting more “presidential” as countless advisors have suggested (at their own peril). The Mexican government could decide to pay for the border wall, as Trump insists. It’s a long seven months until the election. But for now, Democrats have a good shot at winning the five seats they need to retake the chamber, and some operatives predict the party could take as many as eight or 10.