Snow Chances Increase For Early Next Week In DC: Forecasters

Local forecasters say the chance is increasing that we'll see some snow on Tuesday.

The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang reports that "snow chances on Tuesday have modestly crept up," although moisture may be limited when the cold air arrives this weekend which will lower accumulation potential.

An "unusually strong blast of Arctic air for November" will move into our area then. A big snow event is unlikely due to the lack of moisture, but light rain on Tuesday could transition into light snow, they said.

Areas north and west of D.C. are more likely to see accumulation, and the timing is looking to be between Monday night and Wednesday.

Of course, we're still nearly a week out, so forecasts could shift dramatically, but this is definitely a situation to watch. The snow chances could disappear entirely or increase.

Today's digit - 4/10: A cool day is okay but skies are gray and showers won’t stay away. David, CWG

Snow potential index - 2/10 (↑): Snow chances on Tuesday have modestly crept up but moisture may be limited once the cold air arrives, holding back accumulation potential.
— Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) November 7, 2019

People are starting to think about snow for our area. Fox 5's Mike Thomas released his forecast for 2019-20, and it calls for 15 to 25 inches of snow for the D.C. area this season -- above average, but certainly not a blockbuster season.

Thomas said there weren't any "real strong signals" for snow this year, hence the muted totals. This project snowfall would represent above-average snow, but a weak or neutral El Nino "favors some winter storms (5" + events) but not the big blizzards," he tweeted.

He added that temperatures should be near average with "some Polar Vortex visits."

HERE IT IS! Our 2019-2020 Winter Outlook for DC!

No real strong signals this year. Expecting above normal snow...but weak/neutral El Niño favors some winter storms (5"+ events) but not the big blizzards. Temps near average overall, but still expect some Polar Vortex visits. pic.twitter.com/Q66DQgEfab
— Mike Thomas (@MikeTFox5) November 6, 2019

The forecast calls for higher snowfall totals of 25 to 35 inches along the Blue Ridge Mountains, and up to 90 inches in far west Maryland. Points south and east of D.C. are in the 5 to 15 inches range.

We got 16.9 inches of snow last year after a couple of sparse winters (7.8 inches in 2017-18 and 3.4 inches in 2016-17), according to the National Weather Service. The average is 15.4 inches, and the average for November is about a half an inch.