GOP Primary Race For Governor Tilting To Putnam: Poll

State Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam has a slight lead over Ron DeSantis in the race for the GOP nomination for governor, but a recent poll by the Saint Leo University Polling Institute shows the race to be highly competitive. On the Democratic side, former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham is leading a crowded Democratic field.

The St. Leo poll shows that the U.S. Senate race is also close, with Gov. Rick Scott holding a lead over Sen. Bill Nelson, a Democrat from South Florida.

“Most of all, the survey shows that when the margin of error is considered, all these races are too close to call right now,” according to Frank Orlando, director of the Saint Leo University Polling Institute. The primary is Tuesday, Aug. 28, but early voting at polling places and by mail has already started.

The poll was conducted Aug. 10-16.

Here are the poll results:

GOP Governor

Adam Putnam 37.8 (Percentage plus leaners 51.7)

Ron DeSantis 29.7 (41.2)

Someone else: 5.2

Undecided / Don’t Know 27.3

While Putnam is the choice of the GOP establishment in the state, DeSantis has the endorsement of President Donald Trump. In the same survey, 30.8 percent of respondents say they strongly approve of Trump’s job performance and another 19.6 percent say they somewhat approve, for a combined approval rating of 50.4 percent.

Orlando said the GOP numbers reflect Trump’s endorsement of DeSantis and the president's mid-July visit to Florida on the candidate’s behalf.

“It's clear that the Trump endorsement and visit to Florida gave a boost to DeSantis. Many polls around the time gave him a lead over Putnam, but our poll here is consistent with other recent polls that the effect of the endorsement has faded a bit and that we are in for a close finish. Since DeSantis was relatively unknown throughout the state, the endorsement might have meant that people automatically gave him their support in light of the Trump endorsement, but that support has melted a bit since voters have gotten to know more about his candidacy. It will be interesting to watch if President Trump's Midas touch in GOP primaries continues or if Adam Putnam can use the fact that he's won statewide in the past to win.”

As for the Democrats, Orlando said, “the large field for Democrats made it difficult for Graham to lock up a large portion of the electorate to the point where, even with leaners, she's still only attracting around one-third of the voters in the field. On the other side of the coin, she's fortunate that her competitors are splitting the vote up relatively evenly. She's definitely not out of the woods yet though, with a week to go.”

She faces Philip Levine, former mayor of Miami Beach, real estate magnate Jeff Greene, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, and Orlando-area businessman Chris King.

Democratic Governor

Gwen Graham 25.5 (Percentage plus leaners 31.3)

Philip Levine 18.6 (22.3)

Jeff Greene 12.2 (17)

Andrew Gillum 10.1 (15.4)

Chris King 3.2 (4.7)

Someone else 4.3

Unsure / don’t know 26.1

U.S. Senate (general election)

The poll also shows that Scott has an approval of 61 percent for the job he has done as governor, with 31 percent saying they have a very favorable opinion of the job he has done, and 30 percent saying they hold a somewhat favorable opinion. His combined unfavorable rating is 31 percent. Scott also has the support of Trump.

“It appears as though Rick Scott's close association with the president won't hurt too much in the Sunshine State with around 50 percent of our respondents approving of the way Donald Trump is handling his duties,” said Orlando. “This is slightly higher than the president's approval nationwide.”

Rick Scott 40.4

Bill Nelson 35.8

Someone else 8.4

Undecided / Don’t Know 15.4

The poll was conducted among 500 Florida voters. When all 500 answered questions, the margin of error for results is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

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