2021 Hurricane Season Names: From Ana And Bill To Sam And Wanda

MIAMI, FLA. — Forecasters are predicting an above average Atlantic Basin hurricane season this year, and if some of the storm names leave Floridians with a sense of deja vu — from Bill, Fred, Grace and Mindy to Sam and Wanda — there’s a reason.

The World Meteorological Organization's Hurricane Committee recycles names every six years, according to the organization, with the exception of names of storms that were so destructive that the names are retired. After Florida and the rest of the East Coast saw a record number of 30 storms last year, a less-active season could be in the offing during the months to come, forecasters have said.

But NOAA announced that while "average" may conjure up a prescribed number of weather events, the exact number may be higher than one might expect. On Thursday, NOAA forecasters said they expected 13-20 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes in the Atlantic.

The average is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

This year’s list of names, last used in 2015, includes two new names — Elsa and Julian — after two tropical storms caused so much damage six years ago that their names were removed by the organization. Tropical Storm Erika caused significant flooding when more than 30 inches of rain fell in a weather event that killed 34 people. Hurricane Joaquin was even more deadly; 34 people died when the Category 4 hurricane slammed the Bahamas in 2015.

This year’s storms names, as always, are listed alphabetically, will rotate between male and female names and will be used during hurricane season, which runs between June 1 and Nov. 30.

• Ana
• Bill
• Claudette
• Danny
• Elsa
• Fred
• Grace
• Henri
• Ida
• Julian
• Kate
• Larry
• Mindy
• Nicholas
• Odette
• Peter
• Rose
• Sam
• Teresa
• Victor
• Wanda

After last year’s record-setting hurricane season, the World Meteorological Organization’s Hurricane Committee permanently retired four names — Dorian (2019) and Laura (2020), along with Eta and Iota — after the organization decided to retire using the Greek alphabet in the naming of storms. NOAA reported that 2020 was the fifth consecutive year with above-normal Atlantic storm activity and that an average season "has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes."

Exactly how many names are expected to get crossed off this year’s list remains a complicated conversation among forecasters. An average year should produce fewer storms than last year, although NOAA reports that the climate record has shown more storms, which increases the “average” number of storms that hit the Atlantic Coast each year.

An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes — an increase from the past, NOAA's team said last month.

Last year, NOAA reported "the 2020 season produced 30 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 13 became hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or greater), including six major hurricanes (top winds of 111 mph or greater)." Twelve of those storms made landfall.

The average for major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) remains unchanged at three. The previous Atlantic storm averages were 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Last month, hurricane researchers at Colorado State University predicted an “above average” year, citing the absence of El Niño. Subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are much warmer than average, which favors an active 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, the scientists said.

The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team predicts 17 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Of those, researchers expect eight to become hurricanes and four to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or more.

"These updated averages better reflect our collective experience of the past 10 years, which included some very active hurricane seasons," said Matt Rosencrans, seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "NOAA scientists have evaluated the impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones and determined that it can influence storm intensity."

The CSU report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall:

• 69 percent for the entire U.S. coastline (average for the last century is 52 percent)
• 45 percent for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula (average for the last century is 31 percent)
• 44 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average for the last century is 30 percent)
• 58 percent for the Caribbean (average for the last century is 42 percent)