Florida In Crosshairs Of Possible Hurricane

MIAMI, FL — Florida once again finds itself in the crosshairs of a possible hurricane Thursday, as the National Hurricane Center said Tropical Depression 13 was on a track to arrive in the Sunshine State in a few days.

"We certainly can’t rule out potential impacts from this obviously, but also the potential that this system could gain strength and we could have a hurricane knocking on our door late in the weekend into early next week," senior meteorologist Robert Garcia with the National Weather Service in Miami told reporters. "Right now the chances of that are still fairly modest."

A forecast track released by the National Hurricane Center at 8 p.m. Thursday showed the storm becoming a hurricane as the system approaches South Florida around 2 p.m. Monday. The track showed the system remaining a hurricane as the storm passes through the Florida peninsula until at least Tuesday afternoon.

"Although the depression has changed little in strength since it formed yesterday, the overall environment ahead of the system favors gradual strengthening," the National Hurricane Center said. "The cyclone is forecast to remain over warm water and in an area of light to moderate vertical wind shear."

The poorly organized system was located about 505 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands as of 8 p.m. Thursday. It had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. The storm was moving west-northwest at 21 mph.

"This system could bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week," the National Hurricane Center said. "Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days."

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Garcia said forecasters are monitoring a second system over the Caribbean but that system did not pose an immediate threat to Florida. A forecast track from the National Hurricane Center showed Tropical Depression 14 headed toward Texas and Louisiana as a tropical storm sometime on Tuesday afternoon.

"The depression is expected to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday, near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and near or north of Hispaniola Saturday night.," the National Hurricane Center said of Tropical Depression 13.

Forecasters said the long-range track was more uncertain than usual based on the storm's likely path over portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend.

"There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday," the National Hurricane Center said.

Weather researchers predict the 2020 Atlantic hurricane system will be "extremely active," with the potential to be one for the record books.

See related:

• 2020 Hurricane Season May Bring Record Number Of Storms
• 2020 Hurricane Season Brings Uncertainty, Sleepless Nights
• 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season List Of Names

An average season produces 12 named storms, including six hurricanes of which three become major Category 3 storms or above with top winds of at least 111 mph.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in its updated seasonal outlook earlier this month that we could see a total of 19-25 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph, of which seven to 11 will become hurricanes, including three to six major hurricanes.