Above-Normal 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted By NOAA

TAMPA, FL — While this Atlantic hurricane season isn't expected to be as active as last year's record-breaking season, it is expected to be above normal for the number of storms that churn across the ocean, experts said Thursday.

Residents need to follow the old adage: Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

"Last year was our most active hurricane season in 170 years," U.S. Deputy Secretary of Commerce Don Graves said during the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's outlook for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season.

Graves said the 2020 storms not only affected lives, they also carried a price tag of more than $96 billion in damage done in the United States.

NOAA said there is a 60 percent chance that 2021 will be an above-normal hurricane season.

"Although NOAA scientists don't expect this season to be as busy as last year, it only takes one storm to devastate a community," said Ben Friedman, acting NOAA administrator.

For this hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, the National Weather Service is predicting 13 to 20 named storms with top winds of 39 mph, six to 10 hurricanes with top winds of 75 mph, and three to five major hurricanes with top winds of 111 mph, said Matthew Rosencrans, hurricane season outlook lead at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

The average is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

This year's list of possible hurricane names, last used in 2015, includes two new names — Elsa and Julian — after two tropical storms caused so much damage six years ago that their names were removed by the organization. Tropical Storm Erika caused significant flooding when more than 30 inches of rain fell in a weather event that killed 34 people. Hurricane Joaquin was even more deadly; 34 people died when the Category 4 hurricane slammed the Bahamas in 2015.

Last year, NOAA reported that "the 2020 season produced 30 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 13 became hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or greater), including six major hurricanes (top winds of 111 mph or greater)." Twelve of those storms made landfall.

The average for major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) remains unchanged at three. The previous Atlantic storm averages were 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Last month, hurricane researchers at Colorado State University predicted an "above average" year, citing the absence of El Niño. Subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are much warmer than average, which favors an active 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, the scientists said.

The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team predicts 17 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Of those, researchers expect eight to become hurricanes and four to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or more.

Rosencrans said new technology allows hurricane forecasters to predict weather impacts sooner, allowing people to be better prepared.

“We’ve updated our storm surge models and have a variety of new drones being used by our hurricane hunter aircraft,” he said.

This capital outlay in new technology will pay off in the long run, said Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Deanne Criswell.

"Communities will be better prepared to protect themselves from the loss of people and property," she said.

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