'Average' 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Means More Storms: NOAA

FLORIDA — Florida and the rest of the East Coast should experience an average Atlantic hurricane season in 2021, forecasters say. If the NOAA Climate Prediction Center prediction is correct, that would be a relief from last year, which set a record for the number of storms.

But, the climate record of the last 30 years has shown more storms were produced, thus upping what is considered an average count starting this year.

The 2020 hurricane season brought 30 named storms. There is some disagreement among experts about how active this year's storm season will be; the Atlantic season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30

Colorado State University hurricane researchers on Thursday predicted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2021, citing the likely absence of El Niño as a main factor. Subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are much warmer than average, which favors an active 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, the scientists said.

The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team predicts 17 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Of those, researchers expect eight to become hurricanes and four to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or more.

The CSU team will issue season forecast updates on June 3, July 8 and Aug. 5.

An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes — an increase of from the past, NOAA's team said Friday.

The average for major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) remains unchanged at three. The previous Atlantic storm averages were 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

The increase in the averages may be due to improved equipment to monitor hurricanes, and because of the warming ocean and atmosphere which are influenced by climate change, NOAA said in a news release.

“These updated averages better reflect our collective experience of the past 10 years, which included some very active hurricane seasons,” said Matt Rosencrans, seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “NOAA scientists have evaluated the impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones and determined that it can influence storm intensity.”

Once every decade the agency updates the statistics it uses to determine when hurricane seasons are above-, near-, or below-average relative to the climate record.

The CSU report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall:

• 69% for the entire U.S. coastline (average for the last century is 52%)
• 45% for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula (average for the last century is 31%)
• 44% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average for the last century is 30%)
• 58% for the Caribbean (average for the last century is 42%)

For updates on the hurricane season in Florida, get Patch news alerts.

NOAA will issue its initial seasonal outlook for the 2021 hurricane season in late May.

Recap Of 2020 Hurricane Season

NOAA reported "the 2020 season produced 30 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 13 became hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or greater), including six major hurricanes (top winds of 111 mph or greater)." Twelve of those storms made landfall.

"This is the most storms on record, surpassing the 28 from 2005, and the second-highest number of hurricanes on record," the agency said.

In May 2020, NOAA had predicted a range of 13 to 19 named storms, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes.

The "record-breaking" 2020 season blew through the initial list of storm names from the English alphabet, so officials looked to the Greek alphabet for the second time in forecasting history.

NOAA noted 2020 was the fifth consecutive year with above-normal Atlantic storm activity and that an average season "has 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes."