Hurricane Season's 1st Atlantic Tropical Storm Possibly Forming

TAMPA, FL — Just as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association prepares to present its outlook for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, the National Hurricane Center announced it has spotted what could be the season's first tropical storm.

On Wednesday, the center began tracking a subtropical development northeast of Bermuda. Hurricane experts at the center said that as of 2 p.m. Wednesday, there was a 40 percent chance it could develop into a short-lived subtropical cyclone in the next five days.

If it does develop, the storm will be named Ana and will become the first of what's predicted to be an early and busy hurricane season. But weather watchers aren't concerned. They said the most residents could expect from Ana are wind gusts and an occasional shower.

Nevertheless, this would be the seventh year in a row that a storm was named in the month of May.

As a result, the National Hurricane Center announced this year that it will begin issuing its tropical weather outlooks on May 15 instead of June 1. The hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

The National Hurricane Center will release its official 2021 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Thursday, a forecast that is expected to beat last year's busy season.

Among those scheduled to speak at a media briefing Thursday are U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, acting NOAA Administrator Ben Friedman, hurricane season outlook lead Matthew Rosencrans for NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, and Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Deanne Criswell.

Last year's hurricane season began May 16 and produced 30 named storms and 13 hurricanes, including six major hurricanes. Additionally, every Atlantic coastal community from Brownsville, Texas, to Maine was issued a tropical watch or warning in 2020 as Bertha, Isaias, Sally, Cristobal, Laura, Hanna, Marco and, finally, Beta, Delta, Eta and Zeta struck coastal regions.

This year, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has predicted 14 named storms and seven hurricanes. The previous Atlantic storm averages over the past 30 years were 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

NOAA is updating the set of statistics used to determine when hurricane seasons are above, near or below average relative to the 30-year climate record, something NOAA does once every decade.

"This update allows our meteorologists to make forecasts for the hurricane season with the most relevant climate statistics taken into consideration," said Michael Farrar, director of NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction. "Our work illustrates the value of NOAA's investments in next-generation technologies to capture the data that underpins our outlooks and other forecast products. These products are essential to providing the public and local emergency managers with advance information to prepare for storms, and achieving NOAA's mission of protecting life and property."

He said NOAA's new fleet of high-tech environmental satellites and hurricane reconnaissance equipment may be one reason for the increase in storm averages predicted this year. Better equipment allows weather forecasters to make more accurate predictions.

However, the increase in storm activity could also be the result of global warming and other climate changes.

"These updated averages better reflect our collective experience of the past 10 years, which included some very active hurricane seasons," said Rosencrans."NOAA scientists have evaluated the impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones and determined that it can influence storm intensity."

Further research is needed to better understand and attribute the impact of climate change on storm activity, he said.

Regardless, historical data shows that the first named storm of the season doesn't typically form in the Atlantic until July 9, according to the National Hurricane Center. The first hurricane usually forms in mid-August. August, September and October are the most active months for tropical storms and hurricanes.

See related stories:

• From Ana And Bill To Victor And Wanda, Hurricane Season Shapes Up
• 'Average' 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Means More Storms: NOAA