Tampa Bay Voters Could Turn The Tide In Presidential Election

TAMPA BAY, FL — All eyes will be on Tampa Bay and Central Florida Tuesday as political pundits try to predict which direction Pinellas County will pivot and which way the unpredictable Interstate 4 corridor counties of Polk, Hillsborough and Orange will swing.

Florida is not only one America's biggest battleground states for swing voters but is a historic indicator of who will win national elections.

Additionally, Florida has four of the nation's "pivot counties." These are the 206 counties in the U.S. identified by Ballotpedia because they voted for Donald Trump in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.

Collectively, Trump won these pivot counties by more than 580,000 votes with Florida accounting for 1.94 percent of the total pivot county vote.

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What makes this important is that, since 1960, pivot counties in Florida have matched the national election results in 75 percent of presidential elections.

According to St. Petersburg College professor and political analyst Lars Hafner, Pinellas County has chosen the winning president since 1980, with the exception of 2000 when George W. Bush defeated Al Gore in what's become now known as the "hanging chad" recount in Florida.

The Cook Political Report, an independent, nonpartisan newsletter that analyzes elections for the U.S. House, Senate, state governors and president, says Pinellas County also stands out as a "bellwether county." These are counties that are nearly evenly divided between the two main parties, Republicans and Democrats, so either party's nominee stands an equally good chance of winning.

In Pinellas County, there are 256,385 registered Democrats and 251,609 registered Republicans with 206,646 listing their political affiliation as "other."

Compare those number to neighboring Hillsborough County, which has 366,337 registered Democrats, 292,706 registered Republicans and 275,303 "others."

The report names 10 bellwether counties:

1. Kent County, Michigan

2. Wood County, Ohio

3. Erie County, Pennsylvania

4. Sauk County, Wisconsin

5. Marshall County, Iowa

6. Maricopa County, Arizona

7. Pinellas County, Florida

8. Peach County, Georgia

9. New Hanover County, North Carolina

10. Collin County, Texas

Early voting began in Pinellas, Hillsborough, Pasco and Polk counties Oct. 19 and continues through Nov. 1 in Pinellas, Nov. 1 in Hillsborough, Oct. 31 in Pasco and Nov. 1 in Polk from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., including weekends.

Pinellas County Supervisor of Elections Julie Marcus said early voting has been brisk throughout the past two weeks in Pinellas with long lines during peak hours at some of the five early-voting sites.

As of Wednesday afternoon, Marcus reported a record-setting 51.57 voter turnout for the county between early voters and those voting by mail.

Of the 711,462 registered voters in Pinellas County, 367,635 have already cast their ballots.

Of those, 296,341 were mail ballots and 71,294 were early-voting ballots.

And the mail-in ballots are still flooding in, said Marcus.

"More than 400,000 Pinellas County voters requested mail ballots for the 2020 general dlection, the most in county history," Marcus said. "So that's an amazing, amazing community effort of wanting to vote at home."

On the first day of early voting, Marcus said Pinellas County set a new record for the number of early voters. More than 6,300 people voted Oct. 19.

In contrast, during the 2018 general election, only 54,988 people cast early votes in Pinellas County and, during the 2016 presidential election, 78,166 Pinellas County residents cast early votes.

Hillsborough County Supervisor of Election Craig Latimer said Hillsborough County's 26 early-voting sites are also experiencing long lines as a record number of early voters turn out in the county, including 24,000 on Monday, the first day of early voting.

"There were people waiting in line before dawn to vote early," said Latimer.

Despite the numbers coming out to vote, Latimer is taking the election in stride.

"I feel pressure on every election whether it's seven precincts for the Plant City election or 393 precincts for the Hillsborough County election," said Latimer. "Every election is important to us. I'm honored to be able to make sure every vote is counted accurately and timely."

As of Wednesday night, 51.45 percent of registered Hillsborough County voters had already cast their ballots. Of those 480,728 voters, 288,350 voted by mail and 192,378 at one of the early-voting sites.

While Pasco County lacks the large urban populations of Pinellas and Hillsborough, Pasco County Supervisor of Elections Brian Corley is also reporting higher-than-normal returns.

Of Pasco's 393,422 eligible voters, 111,064 have already voted by mail and 86,717 have voted early for a 50.29 percent turnout as of Wednesday night.

See related stories:

• 2020 Election Voter Guide: Floridians To Vote On 6 Amendments
• Election 2020: Polls To Have Coronavirus Restrictions In Place
• 2020 Election Voter Guide: Sheriffs Face Challengers
  
• 2020 Election Guide: Hillsborough Early Voting Through Nov. 1
  
• 2020 Election Voter Guide: Pinellas Early Voting Through Nov. 1
  
• Deputies Assigned To Early-Voting Sites To Prevent Intimidation
  
• 2020 Election Voter Guide: Pasco Early Voting Through Oct. 31
  
• Voter Threats, Intimidation, Coercion Won't Be Tolerated In Pasco
  
• Polk County Voter 2020 Guide: Early Voting, Vote-By-Mail