Tropical Depression Colin 'Likely,' Forecasters Say

TAMPA BAY, FL — A tropical disturbance located in the Caribbean Sea remained poorly organized Saturday evening, but National Hurricane Center forecasters are predicting that will soon change.

"This system is likely to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm by late Sunday or on Monday as it moves northeastward toward the Florida Peninsula," the agency wrote in its Saturday evening update. “Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during the next several days.”

The weather service has given the storm an 80 percent chance of forming into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.

While it’s still too early to tell if the tropical disturbance will develop enough to become the third named storm of 2016, forecasters anticipate the system will bring plenty of rain to the Tampa Bay area over the next few days. Should the system develop, it will be named Colin.

As of Saturday morning, it was too early to tell with certainty what track the storm might take should it develop. Forecasters, however, have placed the entire Tampa Bay area in its potential path.

The National Weather Service’s forecast for the Bay area predicts a stormy weekend and an even stormier start to next week. Storm chances are set at 30 percent during the day on Sunday with a 40 percent chance in the evening hours. Rain chances on Monday are 100 percent, the weather service said. Rain remains in the forecast through Wednesday at least.

Threats of heavy rain over the next few days have prompted local emergency management officials to begin offering sandbags to residents. As of Friday night, Pinellas, Pasco and Hillsborough counties had all announced the opening of sandbag locations starting this weekend.

The Tampa Bay area hasn’t been struck by a hurricane in more than 90 years. The last major storm to come close to the region was Hurricane Charley back in August 2004. That category 4 storm ripped through Charlotte County, leaving four people dead and an estimated 11,000 homes damaged.

While Tampa Bay has been lucky, experts say the streak isn’t likely to last. It’s not a question of if, but when, forecasters say.

To get ready, residents are urged to create their own emergency kits, including food and water for at least three days. They should also know their evacuation routes, have their renter or homeowner’s insurance documents handy and should have a plan on where to go and what to do if a storm strikes.

To find out more about hurricane season and storm preparation, read these related Patch stories:

• Hurricane Season 2016: Where To Find Local Information
• 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Released
• Hurricane Season: How to Prepare
• Tampa Bay 'Ripe for Disaster,' Hurricane Experts Say

To keep up with storm activity as the season develops, bookmark the National Hurricane Center’s website and keep an eye on your hometown Patch site for local information.

Graphic courtesy of the National Hurricane Center