Tropical Disturbance Threatens Tampa Bay

TAMPA BAY, FL — Tampa Bay area residents who don’t have their hurricane plans ready might want to start getting moving. An area of low pressure currently near Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula has been given a 70 percent chance of forming into a tropical cyclone over the next five days by forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.

“This low could develop into a tropical cyclone as it subsequently moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula early next week,” the hurricane center wrote on Friday evening.

While it’s still too early to tell if the tropical disturbance will develop enough to become the third named storm of 2016, forecasters anticipate the system will bring plenty of rain to the Tampa Bay area early next week. Should the system develop, it will be named Colin.

As of Friday evening, it was too early to tell what track the storm might take should it develop. Forecasters, however, have placed the entire Tampa Bay area in its potential path. As of the Friday 8 p.m. forecast, the hurricane center said the system had a 30 percent chance of forming into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours and a 70 percent chance in the next five days.

The National Weather Service’s forecast for the Bay area predicts a stormy weekend in and an even stormier start to next week. Storm chances are set at 50 percent Saturday afternoon and evening and throughout the day on Sunday. Monday brings an 80 percent chance of thunderstorms with storms also likely on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Threats of heavy rain over the next few days have prompted local emergency management officials to begin offering sandbags to residents. As of Friday night, Pinellas, Pasco and Hillsborough counties had all announced the opening of sandbag locations starting this weekend.

The Tampa Bay area hasn’t been struck by a hurricane in more than 90 years. The last major storm to come close to the region was Hurricane Charley back in August 2004. That category 4 storm ripped through Charlotte County, leaving four people dead and an estimated 11,000 homes damaged.

While Tampa Bay has been lucky, experts say the streak isn’t likely to last. It’s not a question of if, but when, forecasters say.

To get ready, residents are urged to create their own emergency kits, including food and water for at least three days. They should also know their evacuation routes, have their renter or homeowner’s insurance documents handy and should have a plan on where to go and what to do if a storm strikes.

To find out more about hurricane season and storm preparation, read these related Patch stories:

• Hurricane Season 2016: Where To Find Local Information
• 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Released
• Hurricane Season: How to Prepare
• Tampa Bay 'Ripe for Disaster,' Hurricane Experts Say

To keep up with storm activity as the season develops, bookmark the National Hurricane Center’s website and keep an eye on your hometown Patch site for local information.

Graphic courtesy of the National Hurricane Center