GA COVID-19 Hospital Capacity At Risk Of Surge, New Data Shows

GEORGIA — With new daily coronavirus cases setting a record this week, Georgia is at a high risk of cases increasing and intensive care unit bed in hospitals could be filled, according to the newest data shared by Covid Act Now.

"Georgia is either actively experiencing an outbreak or is at extreme risk. COVID cases are exponentially growing and/or Georgia’s COVID preparedness is significantly below international standards," the nonprofit said on Saturday.

Over the last week, Georgia has averaged 5,219 new confirmed cases per day (49.2 for every 100,000 residents). If this trend continued for the next year, this would translate to about 1.9 million cases and an estimated 9.5 million infections (90% of the population), the group said.

Covid Act Now, a research group that draws data from The New York Times, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and state and county dashboards, says Georgia has reached the critical stage in one metric: daily new cases per population.

"On average, each person in Georgia with COVID is infecting 1.20 other people," Covid Act Now said in its report. "As such, the total number of active cases in Georgia is growing at an unsustainable rate. If this trend continues, the hospital system may become overloaded. Caution is warranted."

Read more: Georgia Tops 6,000 Coronavirus Cases Thursday For First Time

Georgia has confirmed a total of 9,204 deaths from the virus during pandemic; 30 deaths were reported in the past 24 hours, the state dashboard said Saturday.

In total, 471,734 cases of coronavirus have been recorded in the state; there were 4,868 new cases in the last day and 229 new hospitalizations. During the pandemic, a total of 37,550 hospitalizations have been recorded, and 6,847 admissions so far to intensive-care units.

The state is in the high stage for ICU headroom, the group said.

Georgia has about 2,748 ICU beds. Based on best available data, 1,670 are currently occupied by non-COVID patients. Of the 1,078 ICU beds remaining, 676 are needed by COVID cases, or 63 percent of available beds. This suggests hospitals may not be well positioned to absorb a wave of new COVID infections without substantial surge capacity.

Caution is warranted, according to Covid Act Now, which lists its full methodology and sources guide on the group's website.

Georgia has nowhere near the number of contact tracers needed to help fight the virus, the group said.

"With 5,219 new daily cases on average, Georgia needs an estimated 26,095 contact tracers on staff to trace each new case to a known case within 48 hours of detection. Per our best available data, Georgia has 1,570 contact tracers, fulfilling only 6% of this staffing requirement," Covid Act Now said. "With insufficient contact tracing staff, Georgia is unlikely to be able to successfully identify and isolate sources of disease spread fast enough to prevent new outbreaks."

Another complicating factor in hospital headroom is the flu season. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which always recommends a flu shot annually, also contends flu shots are this year are critical.

"Routine vaccination prevents illnesses that lead to unnecessary medical visits, hospitalizations and further strain the healthcare system. For the 2020-2021 influenza season, influenza vaccination will be paramount to reduce the impact of respiratory illnesses attributed to influenza in the population and resulting burdens on the healthcare system during the COVID-19 pandemic," the CDC warns on its website.

The messaging of many politicians is to hang on a little bit longer as the world prepares for a vaccine rollout.

The earliest shipment of the vaccine could make its way to Georgia within seven to 10 days, Gov. Brian Kemp said Tuesday. That first shipment will go to the most vulnerable population, including the elderly and health-care workers. After that, the vaccination will be given to essential workers and people 65 and older.

As for the rest of the public, Kemp said it will likely take months for enough vaccinations to arrive in Georgia for every resident.

"The general public will not be able to be vaccinated for months," Kemp said.

To lower the risk while Georgians wait for the vaccine, he stressed the importance of washing hands, social distancing and mask wearing, albeit not mandating face coverings.

Georgia Department of Public Health Commissioner Dr. Kathleen Toomey said she has been asked if she will get the vaccine once available, to which she replied, "I can't wait."

All Georgia statistics are available on the state's COVID-19 website.

Read more:

• GA Patch Survey: Will You Take The Coronavirus Vaccine?
• Most Georgians Must Wait Months For Coronavirus Vaccine: Kemp
• GA Coronavirus: 5 Atlanta-Area Sheriffs-Elect Now Have COVID-19

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