Where In Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA Metro Area Where COVID-19 Is Growing The Slowest

By Evan Comen, 24/7 Wall St. Atlanta

2021-04-05

After adding over 61,000 new cases on Mar. 31, the U.S. now has more than 30,000,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19. There have been more than 540,000 COVID-19-related deaths — the highest death toll of any country.

New cases continue to rise at a steady rate. In the past week, there were an average of 17.4 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 Americans — essentially unchanged from the week prior, when there were an average of 16.2 daily new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people.

While COVID-19 has spread to nearly every part of the country, cities continue to be the sites of major outbreaks. Experts agree that the virus is more likely to spread in group settings where large numbers of people routinely have close contact with one another, such as colleges, nursing homes, bars, and restaurants. Metropolitan areas with a high degree of connectivity between different neighborhoods and a large population may be particularly at-risk.

In the 50 largest metro areas, the incidence of coronavirus grew at an average rate of 19.3 new cases a day per 100,000 residents in the past week — 14.5% greater than the case growth in all counties outside of metro areas.

The Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA, metro area consists of Fulton County, Gwinnett County, DeKalb County, and 26 other counties. In the past week, there were an average of 17.1 new coronavirus cases every day per 100,000 Atlanta residents, in line with the national figure. The metro area’s average daily case growth in the most recent week is essentially unchanged from the week prior, when there were an average of 14.9 daily new cases per 100,000 Atlanta residents.

The spread of coronavirus depends on a variety of factors and can vary even between neighboring counties. Within the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta metro area, COVID-19 is growing the slowest in Heard County. There were an average of 6.4 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in Heard County during the past week, the least of the 29 counties in Atlanta with available data.

Case growth in the Atlanta metro area varies widely at the county level. In Butts County, for example, there were an average of 28.2 new cases per day per 100,000 residents in the past week — the most of any county in Atlanta and far more than the case growth rate in Heard County.

Just as Heard County has the slowest case growth in the Atlanta area, it also has the lowest incidence of cases overall. As of Mar. 31, there were a total of 7,063.7 confirmed cases per 100,000 residents in Heard County, the fewest of the 29 counties in the metro area. For comparison, the U.S. has so far reported 9,248.6 cases per 100,000 Americans nationwide.

In order to slow the spread of COVID-19, city and county governments have ordered the closure of thousands of consumer-facing businesses. These measures have led to widespread job loss and record unemployment. In Heard County, unemployment peaked at 14.5% in April 2020. As of January 2021, the county’s unemployment rate was 5.0%.

To determine the county in every metropolitan area where COVID-19 is growing the slowest, 24/7 Wall St. compiled and reviewed data from state and local health departments. We ranked counties according to the average number of new daily COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents in the seven days ending Mar. 31. To estimate the incidence of COVID-19 at the metropolitan level, we aggregated data from the county level using boundary definitions from the U.S. Census Bureau. Population data used to adjust case and death totals came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey and are five-year estimates. Unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is not seasonally adjusted.

These are all the counties in Georgia where COVID-19 is slowing (and where it’s still getting worse).

This story was originally published by 24/7 Wall St., a news organization that produces real-time business commentary and data-driven reporting for state and local markets across the country.