Models Rank Cherokee County At Tipping Point Of Coronavirus Risk

CHEROKEE COUNTY, GA — Georgia is topping the list of at-risk states for contracting the coronavirus in not one but two new models that are tracking rates of infection, with Cherokee County listed as one of the most at-risk communities.

According to a Harvard Global Health Institute model, Cherokee County is at the "tipping point" for a coronavirus outbreak.

A Georgia Tech risk assessment model rates Cherokee County at a 99 percent risk of contracting coronavirus at an event with 100 people.

The Harvard model ranks Georgia at the top of the list for most new daily cases per 100,000 people, with 28.2 new cases per day per 100,000 people. Florida is second, with 27 new cases per day per 100,000 people. At the bottom of the list is Vermont, with 1.3 new cases per day per 100,000 people, and Maine, with 1.4 new cases per day per 100,000 people. New York, which was one of the hardest-hit states earlier this year, currently has 3.4 new cases per day per 100,000 people.

The Harvard model breaks down the new daily cases by county, with all counties except for two in the "orange" or "red" risk levels. Webster County in southern Georgia has no new cases and a total of 39 cases to date. Lowndes County has 9.5 new cases per 100,000 people and has had 3,256 cases to date.

The "orange" risk level represents accelerated spread of the virus, where stay-at-home orders and/or rigorous test and trace programs are advised. The "red" risk level represents the "tipping point," where stay-at-home orders are necessary.

More counties at the "tipping point" in the Atlanta include:

• Bartow County
• Chattooga County
• Cherokee County
• Floyd County
• Gilmer County
• Gordon County
• Gwinnett County
• Pickens County
• Polk County

Counties at accelerated spread in the Atlanta area are as follows:

• Carroll County
• Cobb County
• DeKalb County
• Douglas County
• Forsyth County
• Fulton County
• Paulding County

In a list of counties most at risk across the country, Appling County ranks 22, with 91.7 new daily cases per 100,000 people. Clay County, Ben Hill County and Evans County follow, at numbers 27, 28 and 29 most at-risk, respectively.

Of the top 100 counties in the United States that are most at-risk for coronavirus, 21 counties are in Georgia.

The Georgia Tech risk assessment model breaks down the risk of contracting the coronavirus by county and allows the user to select a group size to see what their risk is in a large group. Much of the state is at an 90 percent risk or higher of contracting the coronavirus at an event with 100 people, according to the model. When that number drops to 25 people, the risk of contracting coronavirus drops to between 50 and 60 percent. When it drops to 10 people, the risk drops to about 35 percent.

In the Atlanta area, the following counties are at a more than 99 percent risk of contracting the coronavirus at an event with 100 people:

• Bartow County
• Chattooga County
• Cherokee County
• Cobb County
• Floyd County
• Gilmer County
• Gordon County
• Pickens County
• Polk County

The following Atlanta-area counties are at a 98 percent risk of contracting coronavirus at an event with 100 people:

• Fulton County
• Gwinnett County
• Paulding County

See more: Georgia Tops Lists Of Coronavirus High-Risk States

Patch Editor Gillian Smith contributed to this article.