Farmer's Almanac Makes Winter 2019 Predictions For Illinois

ILLINOIS — The Old Farmer's Almanac, founded in 1792, claims an 80 percent accuracy rate — and if you believe that, you might be optimistic about the winter ahead. Recently released predictions show a warmer-than-average winter for Illinois and much of the Midwest, as well as most of the country.

The 2019 winter weather forecast predicted "warm, wet" conditions for Illinois and the surrounding states.

"This winter, we expect to see above-normal temperatures almost everywhere in the United States, except in the Southwest, where we’re predicting a colder-than-normal season," the almanac said. "Our milder-than-normal forecast is due to a decrease in solar activity and the expected arrival of a weak El Niño, which will prevent cold air masses from lingering in the North."

The predictions also call for more rain and less snow, with above-normal rainfall and below-average snowfall for Illinois. (Get Patched In: Subscribe to free daily email, news alerts, Facebook fun and more from Patch)

While it could be a mild winter for the Midwest, our neighbors to the north in Canada will see a "mostly cold" winter with more snow, the almanac says.

Here's what the almanac predicted for last winter and this summer in Illinois.

Of course, predictions this far in advance aren't likely to be 100 percent accurate. The Farmer's Almanac doesn't use satellite data or other methods to make its predictions, but rather a secret mathematical and astronomical formula based on things like the moon's pull on the atmosphere, for example.

The formula has only been altered slightly since it was first developed back in 1818 by the Almanac's first editor, David Young.

"The formula takes things like sunspot activity, tidal action of the Moon, position of the planets, and a variety of other factors into consideration," according to the Almanac's website. "The only person who knows the exact formula is the Farmers' Almanac weather prognosticator who goes by the pseudonym of Caleb Weatherbee. To protect this proprietary and reliable formula, the editors of the Farmers' Almanac prefer to keep both Caleb's true identity and the formula a closely guarded brand secret."

Deb Belt, Patch National Staff, contributed to this article

Shutterstock / Tuomas Kivioja