Politics Watchers: Short of Gaffe, Magic Moment, Presidential Debate Unlikely to Sway Iowa’s Undecided in Marion

For political junkies, presidential debates are must-see TV. Stakes are high.

"I think that if the president has a lead now, the first debate is really crucial for [presidential candidate Mitt] Romney," said Diane Hoffman, a Linn County Democrat. "If he does not perform well, it is an uphill battle for him. I don’t see how he recovers."

But even they know that while something big could happen in Wednesday’s debate and those that follow, being careful not to lose the debates -- rather than winning them -- is the norm.

Iowa is one of nine states pollsters say remain in play in the 2012 presidential election, but short of a defining gaffe or breakout line, it is likely to remain so after Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama square off in the first presidential debate on Wednesday.

The debate is being held at University of Denver in Colorado. Jim Lehrer of NewsHour on PBS will moderate the debate, focused on domestic policy. It begins at 8 p.m. Wednesday and will be aired on most major networks.

Iowa has about 621,000 registered Republicans and 603,000 registered Democrats. Debates are largely a showcase for people who have already made up their minds, presumably largely from within those ranks. The problem is, Iowa has more people registered voters with no party - 666,000 active - than either of the major ones, and many undecided voters don’t watch.

"Relatively few undecided voters actually watch the debates," said Justin Whitely Holmes, an assistant professor of political science at University of Northern Iowa. "The audience is largely made up of partisans who are just watching to cheer their candidate on."

Political observers say the biggest chance the debate has of shaping the election is if one of the candidates screws up (think John Kerry’s, "I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it") or, conversely, one of them has a campaign-defining moment, such as Ronald Reagan’s, "There you go again "quip to Jimmy Carter.

"This debate is the most important of the series to be held," said Steffen Schmidt, a professor of political science at Iowa State University. "Why? Because it's the acid test of how well Mitt Romney can hold up against Obama. Also, it’s the one where neither candidate can make a major visual or oral blooper."

Still, those moments are rare.

Aside from trying not to make a blunder, the first debate will not be a cakewalk for Obama or Romney. They both have work to do.

The candidates will be trying to come across as confident, knowledgeable and, well, presidential. They each will get called on their white elephants of the day - Romney’s 47 percent comment and the notion that the Obama Administration "leads from behind" on key foreign affairs policy, national debt and jobs.

Obama will try to convince voters he has the country going in the right direction, and he deserves four more year. In this debate and others, Romney must show voters he has the better ideas when it comes to job creation and the economy, and he needs to come across as empathetic and likeable, Holmes said.

"Romney needs to do something to shake up the race. He has been trending downward in some recent polls and will need to reverse that," Holmes said

As the challenger, the former Massachusetts governor is under more pressure, said University of Iowa associate professor of political science Tim Hagle. Republicans want to see him be more aggressive towards Obama.

For many casual voters, debate season is when they begin to pay attention to the election, so it could be a chance for both candidates to reset, particularly Romney.

"The debates may be the first time where people have the opportunity and inclination to tune in," Hagle said. "Others would argue that people who watch are people who have made up their mind. In that sense, it's Romney who has more at stake. He has to prove himself."