Draconid Meteor Shower 2016 Peak Date: Will Maryland Skies Cooperate?

BALTIMORE, MD — The unpredictable Draconid meteor shower, which peaks the night of Friday, Oct. 7, can be a sleeper or a stunner. Normally, it’s a sleeper, and that’s the forecast for this year. But when Draco the Dragon awakes, you’re in for some amazing stargazing.

An outburst — hundreds of meteors streaking across the sky from every direction — isn’t predicted this year, and that’s just as well. The Maryland weather forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies Friday and Saturday evenings, when the Draconids typically fly. But you might take a chance Sunday evening, when skies will be mostly clear, according to the National Weather Service.

Even under clear skies, the Draconids may be elusive. The meteors could get competition from the light of a waxing crescent moon, though.

The shower is named Draconid because the meteors originate from the constellation Draco the Dragon, though they’re sometimes called the Giacobinids, according to Earthsky.org. They originate from the northern sky, but they fly every which way, so you should be able to simply look up to see them.

• See Also: Patch’s 2016 Meteor Shower Guide

Earthsky.org said the Draconids can surprise. “No outburst is predicted for this year, but then, you never know for sure,” Earthsky.org said on its website. Here's a look at last year's event:

There’s more to look for in the sky this month and the rest of the year if the Draconids are a bust.

Hunter’s Moon a Supermoon

The first official supermoon of the year rises on Oct. 16. Experts disagreed a bit about whether September’s harvest moon was a supermoon or just an unusually large looking full moon, but there’s no disagreement about October’s hunter’s moon or a blood moon.

The hunter’s moon name originates in the lore of the First Nations of North America, and refers to a time when hunters tracked fatted deer under the bright autumn moonlight, readying a stockpile of meat for the winter.

Supermoon is the unofficial term for when the full moon cycle coincides with the moon’s closest approach to Earth during its oval-shaped orbit. The moon appears slightly larger than normal in the sky and can make for a spectacular view.

The technical term is full moon perigee. Perigee is when the moon is closest to the Earth, as opposed to apogee, which is when it’s the farthest. The Oct. 16 supermoon is the first of three.

Waning Gibbous Moon vs. Orionids

Finally, the Orionid meteor shower peaks Oct. 20-21. The glare of a waning gibbous moon in the early morning hours just before sunrise could intrude with the Orionids, which typically produce 10 to 20 meteors per hour.

Most meteors in this shower tend to fall after midnight, and they’re typically at their best in the wee hours just before dawn. The Orionids also sometimes present bright fireballs.

What’s Ahead for the Rest of the Year?

Nov. 4-5, South Taurids: Though the best viewing conditions are likely to be after midnight on Nov. 5, the Taurids are very long-lasting, from Sept. 25-Nov. 25. They only offer about seven meteors an hour, but the Taurids are known for having a high percentage of fireballs. This is the first of two Taurid meteor showers, and it always adds a few more meteors to the South Taurids’ peak night.

Nov. 11-12, North Taurids: This shower is long-lasting, too, from Oct. 12-Dec. 2, but modest as well with only about seven meteors an hour, with most of the activity taking place around midnight. The meteors are slow moving, but very bright. The waxing gibbous moon could outshine this year’s shower.

Nov. 16-17, Leonids: Some of the greatest meteor storms in history have been associated with his event, which can produce rates of thousands of meteors per minute during a span of 15 minutes, as occurred on Nov. 17, 1966. “ Some who witnessed the 1966 Leonid meteor storm said they felt as if they needed to grip the ground, so strong was the impression of Earth plowing along through space, fording the meteoroid stream,” earthsky.org says. In most years, though, the constellation of Leo the Lion whimpers rather than roars, producing about 10 to 15 meteors an hour, especially just before dawn this year. Unfortunately, the bright light of a waning gibbous moon will offer some competition.

Dec.13-14, Geminids: The last meteor shower of the year is usually one of the finest meteor showers visible in either the Northern or the Southern Hemisphere, but a full moon will be out all night, subduing the typically prolific Geminids, which can produce up to 120 meteors per hour. The shower peaks around 2 a.m.

Dec. 21-22, Ursids: This minor meteor shower often goes unnoticed. Produced by the dust grains left behind by the comet Tuttle, it produces only about five to 10 meteors an hour. The shower runs from Dec. 17-25, but it should peak around the 21st. The moon will be 23 days old at the time of peak activity, so it shouldn’t present too much of a problem.

— Story by Patch Editor Beth Dalbey, additional reporting by Editor Deb Belt

Featured image via Earthsky.org