MD COVID-19 Hospitalizations At All-Time High, New Data Shows

MARYLAND — With new daily coronavirus cases setting a record and hovering over 1,700 consistently this week, Maryland is at a critical risk of cases increasing, according to the newest data shared by Covid Act Now.

"Maryland is either actively experiencing an outbreak or is at extreme risk. COVID cases are exponentially growing and/or Maryland’s COVID preparedness is significantly below international standards," the nonprofit said on Saturday.

Over the last week, Maryland has averaged 2,754 new confirmed cases per day (45.6 for every 100,000 residents). If this trend continued for the next year, this would translate to about 1 million cases and an estimated 5 million infections (83 percent of the population), the group said.

Covid Act Now, a research group that draws data from The New York Times, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and state and county dashboards, says Maryland has reached the critical stage in one metric: daily new cases per population.

Read more: MD Breaks Coronavirus Hospitalization Record 2 Days In A Row

Hogan Calls Restrictions 'Death Sentence,' Adds MD Relief Money

Maryland has confirmed a total of 4,937 deaths from the virus during pandemic; 36 deaths were reported in the past 24 hours, the state dashboard said Saturday.

In total, 232,009 cases of coronavirus have been recorded in the state; there were 3,538 new cases in the last day.

As of Saturday the positivity rate in Maryland was 7.42 percent, a 0.07 percent decrease in the 24 hours.

A positivity rate of 5 percent or higher is considered too high by the World Health Organization, which said rate needs to be below that benchmark for at least two weeks before governments consider reopening. To further relax social restrictions and allow very large gatherings, an even lower threshold is needed, the agency said.

The state is in the medium stage for ICU headroom, the group said.

Maryland has about 1,373 ICU beds. Based on best available data, 690 are currently occupied by non-COVID patients. Of the 683 ICU beds remaining, 382 are needed by COVID cases, or 56 percent of available beds.

This suggests some ability to absorb an increase in COVID cases, according to Covid Act now, which lists its full methodology and sources guide on the group's website.

A significant percentage (7.4 percent) of COVID tests were positive, meaning that Maryland’s testing meets WHO minimums but needs to be further expanded to detect most new cases, according to Covid Act Now. Identifying and isolating new cases can help contain COVID without resorting to lockdowns.

With 2,754 new daily cases on average, Maryland needs an estimated 13,770 contact tracers on staff to trace each new case to a known case within 48 hours of detection. "Per our best available data, Maryland has 1,400 contact tracers, fulfilling 10% of this staffing requirement," Covid Act Now said. "With insufficient contact tracing staff, Maryland is unlikely to be able to successfully identify and isolate sources of disease spread fast enough to prevent new outbreaks."

Gov. Larry Hogan announced a series of economic relief measures Thursday afternoon to help Maryland businesses and residents as the state marked the second day in a row of hitting a record number of coronavirus-related hospitalizations. The number of Marylanders in hospitals has hovered just above 1,700 this week and was at 1,719 on Saturday, a decrease of 10 patients from the day before, according to the Maryland Department of Health.

"We are experiencing a post-Thanksgiving surge" in the spread of coronavirus, Hogan said Thursday, two weeks after the holiday.

Hogan committed more than $140 million to help businesses stay afloat during the coronavirus pandemic, treat residents with diabetes who are especially vulnerable to the virus, and provide rent assistance for those in need.

"Today, we are immediately taking additional state actions to help businesses struggling to hang on to avoid the prospect of more layoffs right before Christmas or being forced to go out of business in a matter of weeks," Hogan said.

While he said he did not want to second-guess any leaders, he was skeptical of the decisions by Baltimore City and Anne Arundel and Prince George's counties to restrict indoor dining.

Another complicating factor in hospital headroom is the flu season. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which always recommends a flu shot annually, also contends flu shots are this year are critical.

"Routine vaccination prevents illnesses that lead to unnecessary medical visits, hospitalizations and further strain the healthcare system. For the 2020-2021 influenza season, influenza vaccination will be paramount to reduce the impact of respiratory illnesses attributed to influenza in the population and resulting burdens on the healthcare system during the COVID-19 pandemic," the CDC warns on its website.

The messaging of many politicians is to hang on a little bit longer as the world prepares for a vaccine rollout. Until then, several Maryland counties and the city of Baltimore announced new restrictions on gatherings and indoor dining.

Hospitals are at 88 percent capacity, Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott said Friday. Recalling Gov. Hogan's mention at a public briefing Thursday that all jurisdictions in Maryland are in the red zone for new cases, Scott said: "We're on fire when it comes to COVID."

Read more:

• MD Patch Survey: Will You Take The Coronavirus Vaccine?
• Baltimore Returns To Phase 1 Restrictions, Adds New Testing Center
• MoCo Lost 10 People To COVID-19 Overnight, The Most Since June
• More Coronavirus Regulations Hit Anne Arundel County
• More Coronavirus Regulations Hit Prince George's County

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