New Long-Range MD Winter Weather Forecast Released

MARYLAND — As the nights become crisper, it can make you wonder just what the winter of 2020-21 could bring to Maryland. The newest long-range forecast, covering December through February, brings cause for holiday cheer.

Mild temperatures could prevail this season across much of the country, especially in the South and East, according to an updated outlook released Thursday by The Weather Channel. "Above-average temperatures are expected in most locations from the southern and eastern states to the West Coast," the company predicted. "Areas from the Southern Plains to the Southeast and Northeast could have temperatures that are much above average."

The call for a mild winter is a stronger prediction than last month's early winter weather forecast released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That agency outlook for Maryland called for slightly warmer winter temperatures.

"From a historical perspective, the increasingly strong La Niña event would force an exceedingly warm winter across [the] southern/eastern U.S., especially late winter and early spring, with colder air across western Canada and parts of the northwestern and north-central U.S.," said Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Company.

Winter begins Dec. 21.

This November has been mild in many parts of the U.S. so far. Warm La Niña Novembers like this year tend to be followed by similarly mild conditions in winter, according to Crawford.

In The Weather Channel's month-by-month forecast, December is expected to bring above average highs, January could see much-above average highs, and February predicted to see most above average temperatures.

The average high temperature in the Baltimore region is 46 degrees in December, 42 in January and 46 in February. Data shows the average low temperature is 33 degrees in December, 29 in January and 31 in February.

So, what could La Niña mean for snowfall this winter in the mid-Atlantic? Generally that leads to increased snowfall over the Northwest and northern Rockies, as well as in the upper Midwest Great Lakes region, and less snow in the Central and Southern Plains, Southwest and mid-Atlantic, according to Dr. Stephen Baxter, a meteorologist with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Both forecasts cite an ongoing La Niña weather pattern to bring a warmer than normal winter for our state. NOAA's forecast includes modest probabilities for warmer temperatures from the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast.