Cloudy With A Chance Of Sharks: Cape Cod Shark Forecasts Eyed

CAPE COD, MA — Partly cloudy with a chance of sharks? This type of prediction could become a reality on Cape Cod as shark researchers work to develop a system for forecasting the likelihood of sharks swimming near beachgoers. Researcher Gregory Skomal from the Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries and Megan Winton, a doctoral candidate at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, are working on creating a computer model that will predict the likelihood of sharks at beaches based off water temperatures, the Cape Cod Times reported.

The scientists installed close to 30 shark-detecting buoys throughout Cape Cod Bay and outer Cape waters. These buoys record signals from tagged sharks and water temperature. Skomal said the two-year study will analyze the presence sharks based on the environmental conditions.

Sharks, like most cold-blood animals, tend to avoid cold water because it limits their movement. Skomal told the Cape Cod Times great white sharks are found where temperatures are between 55 degrees and 73 degrees 95 percent of the time. The researchers have about a decade of buoy data to sift through and hope they can use it to map forecasts.

"If we show statistically significant patterns, we will be able to show forecast maps, areas where white sharks are likely to be," Skomal told the Cape Cod Times. "But we have to view it as not being as predictable as a weather forecast. It’s important for people to put it into context."

Even if its not as accurate as weather forecasts, the study may serve as a tool used to prevent shark attacks. The last fatal shark attack on the Cape was in September 2018 when Arthur Medici, 26, of Revere was attacked by a great white while he was on his boogie board at Hollow Beach in Wellfleet.