MA Is Beating The Virus, But Another 1,000 Deaths Still Expected

BOSTON — Massachusetts might be "on track" to contain the spread of COVID-19, but another 1,000 people are likely to die of the disease before Oct. 1, according to the most widely quoted quoted estimate of the pandemic's likely effects.

As of Sunday, 7,858 state residents had died of COVID-19, including 30 new deaths, according to the daily update from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health.

But while the state caseload is decreasing, thanks to a low infection rate, the disease remains highly dangerous. The Seattle-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projects the state will have 8,671 deaths by Oct. 1.

Still, the trends in Massachusetts are strongly positive, according to Covid Act Now, which describes itself as "a multidisciplinary team of technologists, epidemiologists, health experts, and public policy leaders working to provide disease intelligence and data analysis on COVID in the U.S."

"Massachusetts is on track to contain COVID," the group reports. "Cases are steadily decreasing and Massachusetts’s COVID preparedness meets or exceeds international standards."

Most notable is the infection rate of 0.75 percent; a rate below 1 means that each infected person infects less than one other person on average, the key factor in the shrinking caseload.

Meanwhile, phase two of the state's reopening continues Monday with the resumption of indoor dining at restaurants and the reopening of such businesses as nail salons. But Gov. Charlie Baker said last week that phase three, which is to include the reopening of movie theaters, museums and fitness centers, will be delayed at least until July 6.