Best-Case Scenario: August Peak For Virus In Bristol County

BRISTOL COUNTY, MA — If severe control measures including strict social distancing are not put in place, coronavirus infections could top 300,000 in Bristol County by early May - 50 percent or more of the population.

That's the conclusion of Columbia University researchers as reported by the New York Times, which compiled maps showing the estimated spread of the virus in every county in America under varying scenarios for control measures.

Under the best-case scenario, including strict imposition of measures like closing schools, banning mass gatherings, and testing and quarantining sick people and their contacts, the peak of infection could be pushed past July 31, with as few as 16,ooo cases — just 3 percent of the county population.

But even in a scenario falling somewhere between these two extremes, the number of infections could reach 220,000 by early June, about 40 percent of the population, the researchers concluded.

Across the commonwealth, control measures have already been implemented on the state and local level. Governor Charlie Baker stressed the importance of social distancing Monday as he explained his new stay-at-home advisory.

"Acting now to prevent more person-to-person interaction will buy us more time so our healthcare system can better prepare for a challenge unlike any they've seen before," Baker said.

But social distancing in the U.S. isn't as easy as telling everyone to stay home, said Mary Travis Bassett, director of the FXB Center for Health and Human Rights at Harvard University.

"The United States has particular vulnerabilities that make it possible that we'll have the worse coronavirus epidemic of all," Bassett said, citing the country's health, economic and social inequalities.

"These inequalities... mean that we are both more susceptible and more likely to have people who are not going to follow the public health advice of social distancing, hand-washing and seeking prompt medical care because they risk their livelihood," Bassett said.

She added that many low-wage workers in the health care sector can't afford to miss a day of pay or take a sick day.

"The infusion of financial support to people who are no longer working is absolutely critical," Bassett said, "People are not going to stay home and not feed their families."

Schools are closed and may remain closed past the planned April 7 date, according to the state school commissioner. Baker's stay-at-home advisory, which takes effect on Tuesday at noon, closes all nonessential businesses and reduces public gatherings to no more than ten people. Enforcement of the advisory will be left to local officials.