Medfield Officials Question Student Numbers for Dale Project

Should Medfield School Committee keep the current grade 4-5 configuration for Dale Street School for a projected 575 students, or change to a new grade 3-5 model for 860 students? It's potentially a $14-million question, and one on which the School Committee intends to vote at its Aug. 27 meeting.

On Aug. 13, Superintendent Jeffrey Marsden announced he had changed his mind about the grade configuration as part of the Dale Street school project. Massachusetts School Building Authority (MSBA) documents received from a Public Record Request help to shed light on his recent change of position.

Long a proponent of the grade 3-5 reconfiguration to free up space for incoming preschoolers and kindergarteners, Marsden reversed course and recommended that Medfield School Committee keep the current grade 4-5 configuration. He cited lower-than-realized elementary enrollments and current economic strains as two reasons. Three out of five school committee members seemed to agree with him.

Ten days after the public meeting, the Dale Street Building team distributed a document of "frequently asked questions" that included a chart of MSBA enrollment projections from September 2018, however, projections have so far not been realized. A March 2020 NESDEC document also indicates that 2019 projections were overstated.

For 2020 Kindergarten and First Grade classes alone, MSBA had predicted 223 and 211 students respectively, yet it was reported at the June 4 school committee meeting that based on actual enrollments, Kindergarten had 176 students, and First Grade had 199 students -- a total difference of almost 60 students for just two grades. When grades 2-5 are also taken into account, MSBA projections are overstated by 108 students for the 2020-2021 school year.

Based on the documents provided by MSBA, Medfield officials believe the projections won't be realized for about 4 years after the new school opens in September 2024. At the Aug. 13 school committee meeting, some members seemed to view enrollment projections as realistic, while others questioned their reliability, especially in light of a $11-$14 million extra in project costs for a grade 3-5 configuration.

Multiple research studies show that positive student outcomes decline with more than 500 students in one school, and especially so for minority and low-income students making equity efforts more challenging.

In Massachusetts, out of nearly 870 elementary schools, only 24 had student enrollments of 750 or higher, according to 2016 MSBA data. Of the 24 large schools, virtually all were in urban areas, including Brockton, Chelsea, Boston, New Bedford, Worcester, Springfield and Fall Fiver.

What the records show, but have not been discussed publicly...

Massachusetts School Building Authority (MSBA) records indicate that on June 3, Medfield officials participated in a phone meeting with MSBA to talk in part about its the Dale Street enrollment projection of 860 students.

Medfield participants on the call were Superintendent Marsden, Dale School Building Committee Chair Michael Quinlan, and Medfield Owner's Project Manager Lynn Stapleton from Leftfield. The MSBA document states the district was "in receipt of a mid-cycle NESDEC Enrollment Projection which they are interpreting as a dip in the forecast of a potential 100+ students to be realized the year the school opens through the following 4 years."

MSBA acknowledged that Medfield's birth-to-kindergarten ratio "stopped its climb last year," but believed its 20-year projections were still valid (and this despite faulty NESDEC projections received in prior years, and UMass Donahue Institute showing long-term population declines including for school-aged children).

One day later on June 4, Medfield School Committee included the Dale Street building project as an agenda item for its meeting, but nothing about the MSBA phone meeting or concerns about the accuracy of long-term enrollment projections were shared (or discussed at subsequent meetings). Only comparisons of grade 1-5 2019 and 2020 enrollment numbers were provided during the June 4 meeting.

Exchanges between Medfield and MSBA continued through June and into July on the enrollment issue. The Dale Street School Building Committee also did not discuss the MSBA call or exchanges at its June 17, July 8 or August 12 meetings.

Ultimately MSBA was told Medfield would not seek an adjustment to its enrollment projections because it would require a return to the eligibility period. It is unclear how that decision was made.

(The author has attended all Dale School Building Committee and subcommittee meetings since September 2019, as well as School Committee meetings.)