FLOWCHART: Continue Reopening Or Pause?

The countdown is on. All eyes are on May 18th and the report that is due out from the Reopening Advisory Board. While all of the focus is on the reopening process, it is important to look ahead and think about the criteria that is going to be used in order to determine if we continue the reopening process or pause/rollback the process along the way.

The consensus from the experts is that we are very likely to see an increase in cases as restrictions are lifted. This is logical since a large portion of the population has limited their movement and exposure to other people over the last 8 weeks. But it is important to note that a rise in cases should not be used alone as justification to regress. Neither should hospitalization data alone. Nor deaths.

Correlation does not equal causation. Certain data points, when viewed alone, may not reveal the full picture. A closer look at the data and how each data point relates to others is key in making informed decisions.

Stated differently: if a rise in new cases, hospitalizations, or deaths can be attributed to long term care facilities or prisons, then just looking at those data points in a vacuum, does not really tell us what is happening on Main Street America. It would be illogical to roll back the reopening process because there was a spike in cases in nursing homes. There are ways to address that specific issue while being far less restrictive to the general population.

The main question now is how do we protect these segments during the reopening process. Since the start of this crisis, we have gathered lots of data that now can help us to understand what the most vulnerable segments of the population are.

Governor Baker has given us indications in his press conferences about the data he is watching most closely. These tidbits, coupled with other indicators along the way, have given us an opportunity to put together the framework for how that decision will be made. I tried to walk through the process to see how the decision flow would go. I then compiled these notes into a flowchart.

My hope is that this will be a tool that can help start the conversation around this topic. I invite people to offer input, and for people to ask questions, build on it, and to help create a more comprehensive flow.

Follow the flowchart… what do you think?