Lake Erie Algae Forecast Worse than 2014 Bloom that Cut Off Water Supplies

This photo shows the 2011 algae bloom on Lake Erie, the worst in history with a severity index of 10. This year, scientists fear the bloom could approach that level, with a forecasted range of 8.1 to potentially as high as 9.5. (Photo via NOAA)

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Lake Erie algae blooms, potentially worse than a toxic bloom that made water undrinkable for 400,000 residents of Toledo and part of southeast Michigan for two days last summer, will pose a severe threat to water quality again this year, scientists who have studied the environmentally troubled waters of the western basin for several years said Thursday.

A research team at the University of Michigan warned that another large crop of cyanobacteria could again threaten water quality in the area of Lake Erie where Toledo and Michigan’s Monroe County draw their water.

This year’s forecast is for a severity index ranging from 8.1 to potentially as high as 9.5, a level that nears the worst algae bloom ever recorded in Erie’s western basin. Last year’s bloom had a score of 6.5 on the severity index.

“While this year’s toxic algae forecast for Lake Erie calls for a bloom larger that the one that shut down the Toledo area’s water supply last summer, bloom predictions, regardless of size, do not necessarily correlate with public health risk,” Don Scavia, an aquatic ecologist at the University of Michigan, said in a statement. “Local weather conditions, such as wind direction and water temperature, also play a role.”

Scientists have long been concerned about the overall health of Lake Erie, which receives more phosphorous from agricultural runoff than any of the Great Lakes. According to previous studies, Erie accounts for 44 percent of the total phosphorous in all of the Great Lakes, and about two-thirds of that comes from agricultural runoff.

Scavia, the director of U-M’s Graham Sustainability Institute, said Thursday that a long-term strategy is needed to cure the problem.

“... We cannot continue to cross our fingers and hope that seasonal fluctuations in weather will keep us safe,” Scavia said. “These blooms are driven by diffuse phosphorus sources from the agriculturally dominated Maumee River watershed. Until the phosphorus inputs are reduced significantly and consistently so only the mildest blooms occur, the people, ecosystem and economy of this region are being threatened.”

Related Links:

• Lake Erie ‘Severely Threatened,’ Farm Operation Limits May be in Store
• Water Ban Lifted, But Lake Erie Algae Bloom Still a Threat
• Toxic Lake Erie Algae Blooms Cut Off Water in Toledo, Southeast Michigan

Jeff Reutter, a senior adviser to and former director of Ohio State University’s Sea Grant program and Stone Laboratory, said the Toledo water crisis was a “wake-up call to the serious nature of harmful algal blooms in America’s waters.”

“This forecast once again focuses attention on this issue, and the urgent need to take action to address the problems caused by excessive amounts of nutrients from fertilizer, manure and sewage flowing into our lakes and streams,” he said.

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• What conservation measures do you think are necessary to reduce agricultural runoff into the Great Lakes?

Richard Stumpf, ecological forecasting applied research lead at NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, said that most of the lake won’t see algae. It’s expected to develop from west to east in the Lake Erie Western Basin, beginning this month.

Though effects will vary with winds and won’t peak until September, NOAA expects the 2015 Lake Erie bloom to measure 8.7 on the severity index, with a range from 8.1 to potentially as high as 9.5. More severe in scope than last year’s 6.5 severity index, it may equal or exceed 2013, which had the second-worst bloom in this century. The severity index runs from a high of 10, which corresponds to the 2011 bloom – the worst ever observed – to zero. A severity above 5.0 indicates blooms of particular concern.