Stakes High in Michigan as GOP Candidates Close in on Clinton

Clockwise from upper right, Democrat Hillary Clinton trails Republicans Donald Trump, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush in two recent polls of likely Michigan voters. (Candidate photos via Flickr)

Six Republican contenders have now confirmed they will attend next month’s Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference in Michigan, a high-stakes state in the race for the White House.

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul said this week that he will be attending, joining previously announced keynote speakers at the Sept. 18-20 conference at the Grand Hotel on Mackinac Island.

Also confirmed are Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. All 17 Republican candidates were invited to the conference, said Michigan GOP communications director Sarah Anderson.

“Michigan is going to be critical, both in the primary and general election,” said Anderson, who explained the state allocates its delegates proportionally in presidential primaries. “It’s not a winner-take-all, so we’re going to get a lot of attention.”

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Anderson said Michigan Republicans are buoyed not only by the breadth of candidates from their party who are seeking the presidency, but also by recent polls that show a rise in Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton’s unfavorable rating in Michigan and across the country as questions swirl around her use of a private email server during her time as U.S. Secretary of State.

Bush leads Clinton in New Poll

A new poll by Lansing-based EPIC-MRA for the Detroit Free Press and WXYZ-TV among likely Michigan voters shows Bush defeating Clinton, 45 percent to 40 percent, with 15 percent undecided. Clinton would narrowly defeat frontrunner Donald Trump, 44 percent to 42 percent, with 14 percent undecided.

The election is still 15 months away, but Clinton’s fall from favor is still striking. The same poll in June found her leading Bush, 40 percent to 37 percent.

Despite her sinking favorability rating, likely voters still had a better impression of Clinton than of Trump, who has surged in early polls. The two finished nearly neck-and-neck in the unfavorable column at 56 percent each, but Trump’s unfavorable rating was slightly higher.

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The poll of 600 likely voters was conducted Aug. 18-22, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Rubio Leads in Fox/Mitchell Poll

Another poll, conducted for Fox 2 Detroit (WJBK) by Mitchell Research & Communications, showed Florida Sen. Marco Rubio with a 9 percent lead over Clinton (45 percent to 36 percent). The same poll of 1,310 likely voters, conducted Aug. 10, showed both Bush and Trump would narrowly defeat Clinton.

Bush had a 41 percent to 40 percent edge, while Trump had a 40 percent to 39 percent lead. The poll was conducted a day before Trump spoke to a packed audience at Birch Run.

That poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percent.

“There are several important pieces of information in this poll: First, Hillary Clinton’s negative publicity has hurt her with Democrats, independents, women and younger voters,” said Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research & Communications.

“Second, the new face of Marco Rubio is much stronger at this point than either the new face of Donald Trump or the old name of Jeb Bush,” Mitchell said. “Third, Trump is for real as a presidential candidate, he is polling as well as Jeb Bush, the brother and son of a Republican president and clearly the establishment candidate in Michigan.”

Mitchell said the poll results indicated “Clinton has a real problem with Democrats” and is giving up as much as 12 percent to 15 percent of the vote to Republicans in Michigan, while taking only 4 percent of the Republican vote from Rubio and Bush and 5 percent from Trump.

Clinton is also doing poorly among independents, where she trails far behind Bush and Rubio and is tied with Trump, Mitchell said.

“Not Trustworthy”

Michigan’s presidential primary is March 8, 2016, making it one of the early primary states.

Anderson of the Michigan GOP said voters shouldn’t read too much into the early polls.

“It’s a marathon, not a sprint,” she said, but Republicans are nevertheless encouraged by their results.

“People in Michigan are feeling like Hillary Clinton is not trustworthy, and they’re looking for alternatives,” Anderson said. “People who might not have looked at Republicans before are now giving them a look.”

Anderson thinks Michiganders will continue to see a steady stream of Republican candidates coming through a battleground state that has traditionally supported the Democratic nominee for president.

Kasich will be in Michigan Monday to attend a national security forum in Southfield. The conference, organized by Americans for Peace, Prosperity and Security, will be held at 1 p.m. at Lawrence Technical University’s Technology & Learning Center. More about candidates’ travel schedules can be found here.