State Model Shows Mid-July Coronavirus Peak In Minnesota

A model developed by the University of Minnesota School of Public Health and the Minnesota Department of Health shows that infections from the new coronavirus will peak in July in Minnesota. The model released on Friday differs significantly from the projections made by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evalutaion at the University of Washington, which shows Minnesota reaching its peak on April 26.

The Minnesota-specific model shows that demand for intensive care unit beds will peak on July 13 while the number of infections will peak two weeks prior to that. Those projections are based on the scenario that the stay-at-home order is extended until May 8, which most closely matches the current scenario as the stay-at-home order is in place until May 4.

The model projects the state will reach its ICU bed capacity of 2,200 beds by mid-July requiring 3,700 beds and the total deaths from the illness will reach 22,000. The model notes that there is a degree of uncertainty in the projections and there is a range of outcomes for each scenario.

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An interactive model showing the projections is expected to be published sometime in April.

Officials also cautioned that the model is not a crystal ball but provides a range of plausible outcomes. The model was developed to help inform the state's response to the coronavirus outbreak.

Below are some key insights provided by officials on what the model predicts:

• The pandemic is expected to a have long-term impact on Minnesotans because of how easily the virus spreads and how fatal it is.
• Social distancing policies and guidelines will lead to a later peak of cases, hospitalizations, and ICU care.
• Reducing the rate of infection enough to “flatten the curve” – to spread out the number of cases over a longer period of time – requires long-term social distancing measures, but that would also make the epidemic last longer

SEE ALSO:

• Minnesota Coronavirus: 1,336 Confirmed Cases; 7 More Deaths
• How Should Minnesota Vote In A Pandemic? Simon Says, By Mail
• Minneapolis Has Closed More Miles Of Road To Cars Than Any City In America