NH Job Market Poised to Rebound in 2014

New Hampshire will most likely be the third state in New England to recover the jobs it lost in the recession, with the state hitting its pre-recession employment peak in the spring of 2014.

That's the finding of an ecomomic outlook for the state prepared by the New England Economic Partnership. Economic forecasts for all six New England states will be presented Thursday at the Fall Economic Outlook Conference in Boston, hosted by the New England Economic Partnership and sponsored by The New England Council.

Dennis Delay, an economist at the NH Center for Public Policy Studies, said Wednesday that even though New Hampshire should recover all of the jobs it lost in the recession that began in 2007, it's behind other states in this regard.

"That's by any measure a fairly disappointing performance for the New Hampshire economy," Delay said. "Usually, we're the leader in economic growth and job growth among the six New England states. That's not the case this time.

"Actually, Massachusetts has recovered most of the jobs lost in the recession, and Vermont is very close to being the second state to recover all the jobs it lost in the last recession. That's an unusual position for New Hampshire to be in."

The other unusual thing, Delay said, is that for the first time in about a half century, the economic growth in New Hampshire hasn't been accompanied by a significant population growth.

"Usually when New Hampshire starts to grow, not only do we grow jobs but we also see 10,000 to 20,000 people on net moving into the state," he said. "But that has not happened in this economic expansion."

Here are some other quick highlights from the forecast:

• Granite State manufacturing jobs will decrease by 0.4 percent annual average each year for the next five years. However, it is expected that Granite State manufacturing output will continue to increase in the forecast period, as it has in the past five years.
• In the Private Services sector employment will increase by 2 percent annually in the forecast period. The fastest rate of growth will occur in professional and business services, followed by leisure and hospitality, and education and health services employment. 
• The New Hampshire real estate market has finally seen a return to normal (pre-housing bubble) price appreciation and sales growth, according to state realtors. Foreclosure recordings declined steadily over the past year. The state rental market remains strong, with rental costs leveling and vacancies remaining below 5 percent in most areas.