Researchers Update Hurricane Season Predictions For NJ

NEW JERSEY — New Jerseyans who were not fully prepared for Tropical Storm Isaias should get themselves and their homes ready: the 2020 hurricane season is expected to be more active than forecasters originally thought.

Researchers at Colorado State University released updated predictions for the 2020 Atlantic basin hurricane season on Wednesday, saying a combination of much-warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and a lower amount of wind shear is favorable for creating more storms.

"The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has been off to a rapid pace with a record-setting nine named storms so far and has the potential to be one of the busiest on record," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday in releasing the agency's revised seasonal outlook.

NOAA in May predicted there would be 13 to 19 named storms that would reach tropical storm status with sustained winds of at least 39 mph. Six to 10 were expected to become hurricanes, and three to six would become Category 3 and higher with top winds of at least 111 mph. NOAA now is anticipating 19-25 named storms and seven to 11 of them becoming hurricanes. Read more: NOAA Predicts Strong 2020 Hurricane Season Amid Coronavirus

An average season produces 12 named storms, including six hurricanes, with three reaching Category 3 storms or above.

In 2012, when Superstorm Sandy left its mark on New Jersey with both flooding and severe wind damage, there were 19 named Atlantic storms and 10 reached hurricane status.

Colorado State's researchers are predicting there will be 24 named storms in 2020 (they originally predicted 16) and a dozen will reach hurricane strength.

Learn how hurricanes are named: 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season List Of Names

The chances of at least one major hurricane of Category 3 or higher making landfall is higher than normal as well, the Colorado State team said. The chances that one could make landfall anywhere along the U.S. coastline from Maine to the Gulf of Mexico is estimated at 74 percent. There's a 49 percent probability of one striking the East Coast including the Florida peninsula, and a 48 percent chance that one will hit the Florida Panhandle and points west of there in the Gulf of Mexico.

The increased activity could also increase the chances of other storms making their way north, similarly to Isaias, which blasted New Jersey with sustained winds of 40 to 50 mph and spawned two tornadoes in the state. A wind gust of 109 mph was recorded on Long Beach Island, where the outdoor venue set up at the Surflight Theatre was destroyed.

The Colorado State team said the warmer-than-normal water across the tropical Atlantic provides more fuel for tropical storms and also is associated with lower than normal atmospheric pressure and increased instability – all of which favor more hurricane activity.

Vertical wind shear, which affects how much dry air a tropical storm pulls in and how it builds vertically in the atmosphere, is lower as well, the team said. And there's a likelihood that there will be weak La Niña conditions during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

"All of these conditions in combination point to a high likelihood of an extremely active hurricane season in 2020," the Colorado State team said.

"As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them," the team said.

With reporting by Paul Scicchitano, Patch staff

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