Summer Weather Forecast For New Jersey: See Daily Predictions

NEW JERSEY — With the official start of summer just weeks away, planning has begun for the residents of New Jersey who look forward to the warmer weather and increased opportunity for outdoor fun.

Specific, long-term weather predictions can help with that planning, and the private weather company AccuWeather has released its 2021 summer weather forecast.

Daily forecasts for New Jersey are listed until early August. After that, AccuWeather lists the historical average temperature for the rest of the summer.

The first part of the summer, which unofficially begins Memorial Day weekend, is predicted to have comfortable days in the 70s to mid-80s. It isn't until the official first day of summer on June 20 that temperatures are predicted to reach the upper 80s.

The first 90-degree day is predicted in the last days of June leading into July 4th weekend, according to the Accuweather forecast. Then temperatures are anticipated to stay in the upper 80s throughout the month, with one day predicted to be above 90 degrees.

If that forecast holds true, that would be slightly cooler than 2020 in New Jersey, which in July 2020 set a record for the hottest month for the Garden State since the state began keeping weather records in 1895, according to state climatologist David A. Robinson at Rutgers University. The statewide average temperature of 78.8 degrees in July 2020 was 4.2 degrees above the 1981–2010 normal.

August 2020 in New Jersey was warmer than normal as well, though it did not set a temperature record, Robinson said.

Accuweather forecasters say the first part of the summer will pack frequent thunderstorms across the Northeast, so you will need to keep an eye on that for your beach days. Those storms will keep the heat waves in check.

AccuWeather’s long-range forecasters believe that several rounds of stronger storms could sweep across the region, particularly in June and July, in addition to garden-variety summer storms that pop up on warm and humid afternoons.

Thunderstorms, while disruptive, will be beneficial for some areas of the Northeast and Midwest where pockets of moderate drought have sprung up in recent months, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, and were affecting parts of these regions as of late April.

“I think a majority of those pockets will go away by the middle of the summer,” Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s chief long-range forecaster, said in a statement.

As the calendar flips from July to August, there will also be a flip in the weather pattern that will open the door for the hottest conditions of the entire summer.

“We could have a dry spell later in the summer that could spark some intense heat for a time,” Pastelok said.

Nationally, AccuWeather predicts an eventful summer similar to the 2020 season, which brought record-breaking deaths and damage in the form of wildfires and hurricanes.

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was set records with 30 named storms, 13 of which reached hurricane status and six that were Category 3 or higher.

While not predicted to be as busy as last year, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be another above-average season. AccuWeather is predicting 16 to 20 named storms, 7 to 10 hurricanes and three to five direct hits on the United States. A typical season features 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three or four U.S. landfalls.

“Our biggest concern is the fact that water temperatures across the Atlantic are already warmer than normal over a larger part of the basin,” said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, who has been forecasting the tropics for 45 years.

Warm water is one of the key ingredients for tropical cyclone formation, and with the temperatures continually rising throughout the summer, it will translate to more fuel for tropical storms and hurricanes that do develop, he said.

While much of the 2020 hurricane activity affected the Gulf Coast, the highest threat in 2021 is to the coast of Florida through the Carolinas.

“We do feel there could be a named storm in June, but the way the pattern is setting up in June in the eastern U.S.," Pastelok explained, anything that might develop "may be forced away from the coast or head well down to the south towards Mexico or South Texas."

Meteorologists are also expecting the return of derechos, a weather phenomenon sometimes referred to as an “inland hurricane.” The term became more widely known about last summer when one swept through Iowa with winds faster than 100 miles per hour on Aug. 10.

"We are still very nervous about the possibility of derechos developing based on the pattern that we’re forecasting," Pastelok said.

This year, the most extreme weather is expected in the early fall, Pastelok added.

Although the number of tropical storms is predicted to be down from recent years, AccuWeather says tornadoes are likely to be on the rise from May until July.

Pastelok said anywhere from 1,300 to 1,400 tornadoes could be reported by the end of the year, a slight increase from 2020.

“Across the Plains, we’re still going to be watching for the possibility of a flare-up of storms, mainly central areas on north during the month of May, June and early July,” he said.

These storms are expected to extend farther east than normal, Pastelok added, due to drought conditions that range from Montana to the Texas Panhandle.