Food for Thought

While some New Jersey schools are fully open, the majority continue to follow a cohort-based, hybrid model. According to NJ.com, “As of Monday [March 1, 2021], 533 districts were hybrid, 141 remote, and 111 fully in-person.” Although vaccine availability is increasing, COVID-19 continues to disrupt our lives. Parents are tired, stressed, and struggling; children are tired, stressed, and struggling. As a result, many schools are pushing for a return to full days. Middletown, which has recently collapsed all of its cohorts and has offered school--sans lunch--to all students five days a week, is now preparing for a full reopening. But is this the right decision? The answer, of course, is complicated, but here are a few researched points to ponder:

Current Rates of Infection

As of March 23, the CovidActNow dashboard indicates that New Jersey is the worst state in the US in terms of new COVID-19 infections, with an average of 45 new cases per 100,000 people per day. Additionally, Monmouth County is the worst county in NJ, with an increasing daily infection rate of about 59 people per 100,000. Also significant, according to APP, only 15% of county residents are fully vaccinated. Monmouth County is also a statewide leader in the more infectious B.1.1.7 variant, which some estimates show to be 50% more contagious and can result in more severe illnesses. Clearly, then, any comparison to what’s happening in schools in other states and counties is irrelevant. Also, some further statewide context is important: As NJ has eased restrictions and some people continue to act irresponsibly, multiple schools have had to pivot to 100% virtual instruction. Recent examples include Holmdel High School, Red Bank Regional, and Monmouth Regional. One must, then, ask the question: Is it wise for MTPS to fully reopen when so many other schools in the area are closing due to COVID-19?

Current CDC Guidelines

The March 2021 updates from the CDC have eased social distancing recommendations in classrooms, as recent research suggests that three feet of distance may be adequate in schools, particularly in younger grades. However, it’s important to carefully consider the full text of the CDC’s recommendations: “CDC now recommends that, with universal masking, students should maintain a distance of at least 3 feet in classroom settings. CDC has updated its operational strategy to say:

• In elementary schools, CDC recommends all students remain at least 3 feet apart in classrooms where mask use is universal . . .
• In middle and high schools, CDC also recommends students should be at least 3 feet apart in classrooms where mask use is universal . . .
• Middle school students and high school students should be at least 6 feet apart in communities where transmission is high, if cohorting is not possible . . .” Clearly, unmasking older students in communities where transmission is high is not an option.

The CDC’s transmission chart indicates that the two most important factors in reopening schools are (1) the use of multiple mitigation measures and (2) the degree of community spread. The CDC defines the highest risk communities as having new reported cases of over 200 per 100,000 people every two weeks. As of March 23, Monmouth County’s 14-day average is over 850, which is four times higher than the CDC’s threshold for dangerous levels of community spread. Considering these recommendations, how is it possible that unmasking children and eating lunch is considered a scientifically sound option for any school in our area?

Masks as a Mitigation Measure

One of the easiest and most cost-effective mitigation measures is a good mask. In a paper published by a multidisciplinary group of scientists, the authors state that their “analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the trends of the pandemic. This protective measure significantly reduces the number of infections. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing . . . are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public . . .” (June 2020). Clearly, social distancing students at lunch--if it's even possible--is not enough. Instead of removing masks to eat lunch, our schools should be mandating that our children wear better masks. In a paper recently published in JAMA, CDC doctors assert that “In recent laboratory experiments, multilayer cloth masks were more effective than single-layer masks, blocking as much as 50% to 70% of exhaled small droplets and particles” (Feb 2021). Additionally, in a peer-reviewed article published in The Lancet, researchers who conducted a comprehensive meta-analysis found that “face mask use could result in a large reduction in risk of infection . . . with stronger associations with N95 or similar respirators compared with disposable surgical masks or similar cotton masks . . .” (June 2020). This research begs the questions: How much attention are our schools paying to mask quality and enforcement?

Overall Assessment: Risk vs. Reward

Right now, at MTPS, more students are in a classroom for a longer duration than at any point in this academic year. Right now, COVID-19 cases in Monmouth County are increasing. Right now, most adults in NJ are not fully vaccinated. Right now, children in NJ are unvaccinated. Right now, although COVID outcomes have improved, death is still a possibility when both children and adults are infected. Right now, more contagious and deadly strains of COVID-19 are spreading in our communities. Considering our current circumstances, we must ask ourselves: what is to be gained by moving from half days to full days and asking students to remove their masks for lunch? Will an extra hour or two make a substantial difference in academic progress? Will an extra hour or two mitigate the growing mental health effects of the pandemic? Will an extra hour or two solve people’s childcare problems? Are the fickle and insubstantial “rewards” of fully reopening worth the risks? And what about the cost and logistics of staffing lunches during this fiscally challenging time?

As adults—parents, administrators, and BOE members—we must carefully evaluate evidence before making decisions that impact our children and our community. If you’ve considered the available evidence and have reached a reasonable conclusion, please make your voice heard by contacting your local school board and administrators. Children are counting on you.