NJ COVID Variants Rise Quickly Even As Public Data Is Incomplete

NEW JERSEY — COVID-19 variants — especially the U.K. strain — are spreading quickly through New Jersey. State officials say they play a major part in New Jersey's COVID-19 infection rate, which ranks second nationally.

But publicly available data makes it difficult to determine how prevalent they've become statewide.

The strain first identified in the U.K. — associated with greater contagiousness and potentially higher mortality — is now the most common in the United States, according to Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control. Data indicates that three-quarters of COVID-19 cases in New York City may be some form of variant.

One thing has become clear: the U.K. variant known as B.1.1.7 is spiking in New Jersey. The New Jersey Department of Health has reported 487 new cases of the U.K. strain in the past 10 days — a 77.6 percent increase that brings the state to 1,114 confirmed cases.

"We’re one of several states where B.1.1.7. is more of a predominant variant right now," said State Epidemiologist Dr. Christina Tan.

But case totals provide an incomplete picture on the prevalence of variants because of insufficient means to detect them — a universal issue not unique to New Jersey.

Health agencies can more clearly show the pervasiveness of variants by conducting what is called surveillance — taking a fraction of samples positive for COVID-19 and sequencing them to whether if they're variants, then figuring out which percentage come back as variants.

The state Health Department believes their current processes are sufficient in detecting variants.

"The major goal of sequencing is to be able to detect the emergence of new variants of concern," said department spokesperson Dawn Thomas. "We believe that the number of specimens that are currently being sequenced is adequate for this purpose.

Sequencing data indicates that 32.8 percent of New Jersey's COVID cases in March were the U.K. strain.

But the fluid situation of COVID variants complicates New Jersey's reopening timeline, because of developing information and already-concerning data about some strains.

The U.K. strain appears to be 40 to 80 percent more contagious than COVID-19, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Read more: Gov. Murphy: Surge In COVID Variants In NJ Will Delay Reopenings

State Health Commissioner Judy Persichilli reported that New Jersey has more than 1,100 "variants of concern," meaning they are COVID viruses that can spread much more quickly and lead to increased hospitalizations. The U.K. and South African variants, for example, have a 50 percent increase in transmission.

New Jersey's variants include 1,130 cases of the UK variant – more than twice what was reported a month ago. It's not clear, however, where those variant cases are located even though some counties continue to show a steady rise in cases and deaths. Read more: 12 NJ Counties With Highest Case, Fatality Rates Amid COVID: Feds

Indeed, COVID-19 cases continue to remain at a level that's too high in the Garden State, and officials are blaming the variants. On Wednesday, Gov. Phil Murphy announced that the positivity rate is up 3 percent since Monday, increasing from 8.39 percent to 11.04 percent. Read more: NJ In New CDC Coronavirus Hot Zone: 2nd Highest Case Rate In U.S.

New Jersey's Data

Here's New Jersey's variant case count as of Wednesday afternoon:

• B.1.1.7 (U.K. strain): 1,130 cases
• B.1.526 (first identified in New York): 157
• P.1 (traced back to Brazil): 19
• P.2 (also first detected in Brazil): two
• B.1.351 (originally found in South Africa): three
• B.1.429 (linked to California): four
• B.1.427 (also first identified in California): eight

The number of known variant infections seems minuscule compared to New Jersey's case totals. The state has reported about 3,000 new COVID-19 cases per day over the past week.

But because of current testing options, case totals don't properly illustrate the prevalence of COVID variants within communities. The CDC instead collect data from genomic surveillance.

Nationally, around 40,000 positive COVID tests get sequenced per week to determine whether they're variants. The CDC then reports what percentage of those samples were variants, which helps health officials determine what proportion of local cases are variant strains.

The state gets 1,000 samples sequenced per week, according to a spokesperson from the New Jersey Department of Health. When asked what percentage come back as variants, the health department directed Patch to CDC data.

The data covers specimens collected from the four-week period ending March 27. In that span, 32.8 percent of New Jersey's samples came back as the U.K. variant. Additionally, 1.8 percent represented the California strains, and 0.5 percent returned as the Brazil variant.

Two New Jersey health companies recently announced innovations that could help better track variants. Hackensack Meridian Health developed a test that can detect the strains first discovered in the U.K., South Africa and Brazil — New Jersey's three "variants of concern" — within 2.5 hours.

Atlantic Health Systems — based in North Jersey — created a rapid test for detecting COVID variants. Atlantic Health's tests can screen for the current variants of concern, and they're developing tests to detect strains such as the California and New York variants.

Evolution of the Variants

Up to this point, the New York City Health Department has offered more precise data than New Jersey on the spread of variants. The department issues weekly reports on its sequencing data.

New York City's data offers a snapshot of just show quickly the variants can spread. From Feb. 8-14, only 7.1 percent of samples came back as the U.K. strain. That figure increased to 11.8 percent Feb. 22-28 and then 29.5 percent in March 22-28.

Here's New York City's most recent sequencing data:

B.1.526 — first discovered in New York — represented 45.2 percent of New York City's samples from March 22-28. The strain is a major part of why three-quarters of New York City cases come back as variants.

Many questions remain about the New York variant, including its contagiousness, whether it causes more severe illness or if it can evade protection from the COVID-19 vaccines. But the CDC doesn't currently consider it a "variant of concern," so it's not calculated in New Jersey's sequencing totals.

Variants and Reopening

Murphy halted most facets of reopening late last month because of a surge in COVID variants. The halt came after Murphy loosened several coronavirus restrictions in late February and early March, such as capacities on restaurants, indoor and outdoor gatherings, houses of worship and entertainment venues.

Many people and businesses in New Jersey have welcomed the loosening of restrictions as the state inches closer to leaving the pandemic behind. But it hasn't been all smooth sailing.

Without precise data on the variants, however, New Jersey has relied on other public data to justify the slow approach to reopenings.

The latest data shows New Jersey inside a COVID-19 hot zone, as the Garden State ranks second in the nation in cases per capita over the past week, according to the CDC. Total hospitalizations also increased from 1,804 on March 6 to 2,281 as of Wednesday afternoon.

In New Jersey, Persichilli says the number of people on ventilators and daily death totals also have increased. New Jersey also saw a continuance of a nationwide trend of younger and middle-aged patients comprising a greater bulk of hospitalizations.

Forty-eight percent of people hospitalized with the virus last weekend in New Jersey are younger than 60. Older demographics make up the bulk of people vaccinated because of the state's eligibility requirements. But New Jersey will allow everyone 16 and older to get inoculated starting next Monday.

Despite recent trends, Murphy believes New Jersey remains on the right track.

"There is a lot of comfort," Murphy said, "notwithstanding these variants, that the overwhelming evidence to date says that that basic stuff is still what the doctor ordered."