2 BQX Questions To Ask: Who Will Ride And Who Will Pay?

BROOKLYN, NY — At some point this spring — perhaps as soon as the end of March — the Department of Transportation (DOT) and Economic Development Corporation (EDC) will release their latest and most detailed study of the proposed Brooklyn Queens Connector (BQX), a 17-mile, multi-billion dollar light rail train that, if completed, would begin shuttling passengers up and down the Brooklyn-Queens waterfront by 2024.

The BQX concept was unveiled about one year ago by Mayor Bill de Blasio. Since then, the EDC and DOT have conducted a host of meetings with civic organizations and communities along the train's prospective corridor.

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At public "visioning sessions," residents were given the chance to weigh in on the project, comment on where they think a train should or shouldn't run, and pose questions and concerns to city officials. (Patch attended meetings led by the EDC and DOT in Astoria, Red Hook, Sunset Park, Brooklyn Heights, and Williamsburg, as well as separate presentations hosted by Adam Giambrone, a light rail expert hired by the city to guide the project forward, in Red Hook, Sunset Park, and Crown Heights.)

City staffers also spent part of each session outlining why they thought the train would benefit commuters and the city's economy — in brief, it's a viable way to provide north-south mass transit in a rapidly growing part of the city, one ill-served by a public transportation system designed to connect Queens and Brooklyn with Manhattan, not to each other.

At the sessions, staffers always noted the aforementioned major study of the BQX that's underway. They did not, however, dwell on the specific findings of the only city evaluation of the project available to date: a "rapid assessment" of the BQX completed early last year. (The document was put online by Politico in April 2016, and is embedded at the bottom of this post.)

An EDC spokesperson explained that rapid assessments inform agency leaders whether projects are worth studying in greater detail (in the case of the BQX, the answer was yes).

The EDC spokesperson declined to make agency staffers available to discuss the rapid assessment. Instead, they stressed that it was effectively a draft document with conclusions that would likely change with additional analysis. The spokesperson also challenged the idea that the rapid assessment's findings haven't been present in community conversations, saying that its conclusions informed the information provided to the public.

The rapid assessment itself, however, is still worth reviewing, both as a jumping-off point for future conversations, and, more importantly, as a point of comparison to the analysis the city will release this spring.

Many elements of the BQX project are discussed in the rapid assessment, but here are two that residents should pay particular attention to:

Question 1: Who will ride the BQX?

The rapid assessment's analysis of projected BQX ridership starts on page 19, with analysts concluding that the train's average weekday passenger total would hit 48,900 by 2035, about a decade after it started operating:

The assessment also includes an estimate of BQX ridership by stop. A spreadsheet tracking trips to and from specific proposed stations can be found on page 25, and is embedded below (click to enlarge):

The findings state that the most heavily used BQX stop on weekdays would be Brooklyn Heights, with 1,888 daily trips originating from the station, followed by Sunset Park with 1,327 and the Navy Yard with 1,148. The least-used stop would be Williamsburg Central, with 75 daily trips originating from the station, followed by Greenpoint South with 129 and Williamsburg North with 187.

Existing MTA ridership numbers far exceed these projected totals. For example, according to official statistics, in 2015, an average of 7,458 weekday riders entered the R line subway stop at 53rd Street in Sunset Park, with another 13,048 entering the R line at 59th Street. The ridership total from those two subway stations alone — 20,506 people — is 42 percent of the BQX's total projected average daily ridership by 2035.

That said, the BQX ridership numbers in the city's future study could be different from those in the rapid assessment. What's more, Giambrone, the light rail expert, has cautioned against extrapolating too much from existing transit patters. At his recent Crown Heights meeting, for example, he said that peoples' transportation decisions can change once new options are introduced.

Also worth considering is the transit benefit the BQX would provide to those who use it. For example, on page 5, the rapid assessment states that those riding the train from Astoria to Williamsburg would save 34 minutes compared to existing options — though the assessment also says that just 36 people would need the to take that trip.

The rapid assessment states that "a more detailed analysis is needed" to better understand the BQX's likely future ridership, including the connectivity of the train to subways and ferries, "the effects of various transfer policies on ridership," and "coordination with any ongoing or future development initiatives." The results of such explorations are worth paying attention to when the city releases its detailed study.

Question 2: Who will pay for the BQX?

The city has proposed footing the BQX's approximately $2.5 billion price tag using what's alternatively referred to as "value capture" or "tax increment financing (TIF)."

Under the approach, New York would pay for the BQX using bonds, which would then be repaid by capturing a portion of the property tax revenue collected in years to come along the BQX's corridor. In theory, the BQX would help drive up the corridor's property values, and hence property taxes as well, effectively paying for itself.

This, the city says, is a way to finance a major infrastructure project without having to seek new capital funds from the city budget, Albany or the federal government. (At his Crown Heights meeting, Giambrone suggested the ability to create a viable TIF district along the waterfront is a key reason a project like the BQX is being proposed there.)

But who would be impacted by the TIF district, and what impact would it have on their wallets?

Starting on page 26, the rapid assessment offers a brief analysis of the funding mechanism being proposed. The assessment assumes a TIF district that extends for half a mile around each BQX stop. Also assumed is that the city's "demand for residential and commercial property will continue to grow linearly, on average, at historic rates based on 11 years of data (2004 to 2015)." The study points out that the time frame includes "a significant period of economic recession.

Additionally, the assessment assumes that rezoning won't take place, meaning future development will have to adhere to existing zoning regulations.

Among its conclusions, the assessment states that over 40 years, the value of new developments in the corridor would increase somewhere between 2 and 3.5 percent due to the BQX (this is known as the project's "transit premium").

The impact of the train was also applied to the value of three classes of properties: one to three family homes, multi-family residences, and commercial developments.

After analyzing a variety of factors, the city concluded that the BQX would generate between $2.4 billion and $3 billion in tax revenue over 40 years, depending on what impact it wound up having on new development, as shown in a chart on page 27.

Lauren Fischer, a PhD candidate at Columbia University who studies the financing of transit projects, noted that a previous analysis of the BQX produced by advocacy organization Friends of the Brooklyn Queens Connector assumed a transit premium of 8 percent, much higher than the city's assumption.

"In my opinion, it's a smart move to be more conservative than not on these projections," she said.

But the rapid assessment doesn't spell out whether any particular spikes in development are anticipated along the corridor. Nor does it show how the BQX would impact different classes of properties, both existing and planned. Fischer said the city's future study will likely "disagregate" its conclusions, meaning it will break down the BQX's anticipated impact by property type.

Another question to ask: could the city introduce tax exemptions for property owners of a certain size, so as to reduce the train's tax burden on small land holders?

Fischer said that such arrangements have been common in cities around the country that have installed light rail systems. The decision, she said ,often comes down to asking, "Who are the groups that you can tax the most that [have] the least ability to be politically upset about it?"

"Most cities end up taxing all land uses at some rate," she added. "Are residents talking about requesting a tax abatement based on income? This is a strategy other cities have considered to make sure that existing residents aren't priced out of the neighborhood."

Asked if the BQX could impact property values outside of the TIF corridor, Fischer said it's certainly possible, though not necessarily easy to predict.

"There are absolutely cases where that happens, and there are absolutely cases where that doesn't," she said. "I wouldn't be surprised if the impact on land values is much more than a half mile [in reach]."

However, she noted that, "It's very hard to project this ripple effect. You just don't really know how far it's going to go until people start using the service."

While the rapid assessment doesn't address such questions, it does make clear that the BQX is seen as a project that would both benefit from, and encourage, development.

"In addition to financial feasibility, greater economic development of the corridor is an important consideration," the assessment states. "Hundreds of thousands of people of diverse incomes live and work in the study area. Adding transit can help the City retain and compete for residents and businesses, which can spur even greater growth."

Pictured at top: former train tracks on 2nd Avenue in Sunset Park. Photo by John V. Santore.