National Weather Service Releases Winter 2019 Forecast For NY

NANUET, NY – These long range forecasts change, well, like the weather. The latest prediction for what winter 2019 has in store for New York comes from the government's meteorologists at the National Weather Service – and if Wednesday and Thursday nights were shocks to your system, it's good news.

Learn more about who's predicting what and why — then look below for the more immediate, more local forecast for this weekend.

The problem is, it's in direct opposition to an earlier forecast issued by the Farmer's Almanac. So which one to believe? (Get more weather news - sign up for Nanuet Patch news alerts and our free daily newsletter and follow us on Facebook.)

The NWS outlook, released this week, says that from December to February we can expect above-average temperatures.

Why is that?

“We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the agency's Climate Prediction Center. “Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North.”

If you're wondering what El Nino means, according to the NWS it is an "ocean-atmosphere climate interaction that is linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific." During the winter, typical El Nino conditions in the U.S. can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North, the National Weather Service says.

Most of the country is looking warmer than normal this winter and the NWS stresses that "No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures."

As for precipitation potential, New York is in the normal range.

So How Much Snow Are We Getting This Winter?

Several publications, including the Farmers' Almanac, will make long-range snowfall predictions but the National Weather Service says that is basically impossible to do.

"Snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are still likely to occur," the National Weather Service states.

See related: Brutal Or Mild: Almanacs Give Polar Opposite NY Winter Forecasts

Several Long-Range Winter Forecasts Have Been Released

The National Weather Service's winter prediction comes six weeks after the Farmers' Almanac and Old Farmers' Almanac made their winter projections.

The Old Farmer's Almanac, which released its forecast in late August, predicts a warm, wet winter with less snow than normal in the Northeast. But the Farmer's Almanac, which made its prediction in September, offers a much bleaker outlook.

The high-points from the Farmer's Almanac winter prediction for New York include:

• Colder than normal temperatures.
• More snowfall than normal.
• Bitter cold, winds and snow from mid-February.
• Cold to keep its grip on the region after the official start of spring.

The Old Farmer's Almanac prediction for the Northeast is that we can expect to avoid a deep freeze and, though it's going to rain, most of that precipitation won't be frozen.

It appears the National Weather Service and the Old Farmers' Almanac are on the same page, while only the Farmers' Almanac is predicting a cold and snowy winter.

The Weather Channel in its long-range forecast for November, December and January predicts above average temps for the Northeast in November and December but says that January will be colder than normal.

We'll know by April 1 who was right. There are only 133 days until Spring 2019!

Meanwhile, what about here and now? The NWS offers this forecast for Rockland County:

• Friday night-Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the evening, then cloudy with a chance of showers after midnight. Not as cool with lows in the upper 40s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
• Saturday-Cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning, then partly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 60s. West winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
• Saturday Night-Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows around 40. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
• Sunday-Mostly sunny. Cooler with highs in the upper 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
• Sunday Night-Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s.

With reporting by Brian McCready/Patch

Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images